Benghazi attack a short-term setback for Libya investment revival

(Reuters) - The taxi driver parked outside a luxury hotel in Tripoli says most of his business there has ground to a halt in the past two weeks.

Since an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on September 11 killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, heightening fears for the safety of Westerners in Libya, there have been fewer foreign customers requesting his services.

"There has been a change, the foreigners are much more cautious now," the driver, who did not wish to be named so as not to be recognized, said. "They won't just come up to the taxi rank, they want to be careful. Some have gone, others are staying inside the hotel. But they're not going out with us."

The assault on the U.S. diplomatic mission was the most serious security incident in Libya since the end of the eight-month uprising that finished Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year rule last year.

Coupled with a lull in policymaking as the country awaits a new government that will take over soon from the interim administration, the attack risks scaring off foreign investors in the short term. It will also pressure the new administration to focus heavily on security, which could further delay much-needed reforms and reconstruction in Libya.

Security has been an issue as the country's new rulers have struggled to contain armed militias who have refused to give up their weapons since the war ended.

The Benghazi attack has led many companies to beef up security measures in Libyan cities, restricting staff movements, and as embassies warn against non-essential travel to the North African country, risk premiums are rising.

"Suddenly you will have people who won't be able to come because of insurance - companies may not send them because they see Libya as too risky," one foreign businessman in Tripoli said. "That will slow things down. And for those who had plans to bring their families here, that will be postponed."

Libya had been making progress in trying to attract foreign investment and stimulate its private sector: officials have been working to update a 2005 banking law which first allowed foreign banks into the country and have plans to introduce Islamic banking.

International oil companies were the first to return to the country after the uprising, helping oil production return to almost pre-war levels of 1.6 million barrels per day.

But recovery has been prone to setbacks: in July around half of Libya's oil-exporting capacity was temporarily shut down after protests by groups demanding more autonomy for eastern Libya, the source of most of the country's oil.

Major construction and transport projects have been untouched since last year, awaiting the authorities' approval to resume.

"The incoming government's focus will be so much on security, which has always rightly been a priority but there is now an added risk that restarting essential infrastructure projects may be put down the agenda in the immediate term," said Alex Warren of research and advisory firm Frontier, which runs The Libya Report business website.

Benghazi air space was temporarily closed after the attack, expatriate workers in the eastern city were relocated to Tripoli or fled overseas, and a British trade delegation was cancelled.

"What happened in Benghazi has a very negative impact because it may lead foreign businessmen to freeze plans to come and invest in Libya," said Issa al-Babaa, executive director of the Libyan Businessmen Council.

Yet the country's tiny stock market has barely reacted, dipping less than half a percent in the two weeks since the attack, according to Ahmed Karoud, general manager of the stock exchange, which lists about a dozen local companies.

That suggests the Benghazi attack may not have a lasting impact on business and, like in Iraq, foreign investors in the longer term may be willing to invest there despite security concerns if they see high returns.

CRACKDOWN ON MILITIAS

Many investors, including Chinese companies expected to bid for infrastructure projects, may not be deterred as violence has been directed mainly at Western targets.

"Given the current state of the economy, I don't think it's affected the macro picture or overall GDP growth. Oil production and trade has not been disrupted, there are no tourists to scare off and foreign investment is minimal at the moment," said Warren.

"But it's going to make it more difficult to move away from those current dynamics. Sentiment has been affected and the government will have to work harder to persuade foreign companies to come to Libya in the short term, given the added risk they will feel is involved."

Keen to make a break from the Gaddafi regime, the interim government said no major new concessions would be awarded until after the national assembly elections that were held in July.

The International Monetary Fund forecast in July that Libya's gross domestic product would double this year after shrinking 60 percent last year, helped by rebuilding and the release of pent-up private demand.

The attack is unlikely to hurt growth when oil accounts for the lion's share of revenues.

Libya aims to raise its oil production to 1.8 million bpd next year, above levels seen before the uprising.

But no new exploration and production contracts are expected for at least a year before a clearer landscape emerges from the OPEC member's democratic transition.

Gaddafi isolated the economy from much foreign competition, reserving licenses and contracts for his own circle, which makes some sectors attractive now he is gone, including telecommunications.

There are only two mobile operators, Al Madar and Libyana, which are both state-owned and a number of foreign telecom operators have been eying Libya including Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar Telecom (Qtel) and Saudi Telecom.

Business potential highlights a lack of infrastructure which the new government will quickly need to address. In 2010, 14 percent of people in Libya were using the Internet, according to the International Telecommunications Union, compared with 49 percent in Morocco, 37 percent inTunisia and 27 percent in Egypt.

The stock exchange has wanted to attract more foreign investors to trade shares since it reopened in February after closing during the war, but says rules on bringing funds into the country need to be relaxed.

"We are waiting for the new government to be formed. Nothing is known until then and we hope it will be stronger in making decisions," said Karoud.

The killings in Benghazi fuelled public anger at the continued presence on the streets of armed units, driving an Islamist militia, Ansar al-Sharia, out of the city on Saturday while the army ordered unauthorized armed groups to leave public premises in Tripoli as leaders vowed to dissolve rogue militias.

Central Bank Governor Saddek Omar Elkaber said the crackdown would be positive for the investment climate.

"What happened at the consulate eats away at the trust that has been gained in Libya," he said. "The steps now being taken are the right ones, it will help renew the trust for foreign investors."

In Benghazi itself, birthplace of the revolution, recovery could take longer, delaying regeneration after decades of neglect under Gaddafi, who fashioned the capital Tripoli into his power base at Benghazi's expense, its residents say.

"The events (are) going to delay things even more. Things were starting to look on the up. That is going to set them back, which is unfortunate," said Richard Weeks, a British engineer who has lived in Benghazi for more than 20 years.

Libya's second city, Benghazi is a major oil port but many foreigners working there were evacuated after the attack. Even before that, the city had seen several attacks on Western missions and organizations.

"Libya needs foreign business partners," a European worker said as he left Libya temporarily following the attack.

"But when even friendly Arab businessman are planning to leave and there is no government support to foreign companies, there are a lot of question marks."

In lawless eastern Libya, U.S. mission just latest victim

By Hadeel Al Shalchi and Marie-Louise GumuchianReuters
International treaties are clear. The Libyan government had a duty to protect the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and it failed utterly when the compound was overrun and four Americans, including the ambassador, were killed.

Libya's problem though, runs far deeper than just diplomatic protection: interim governments have barely governed, and the latest prime minister - named hours after the U.S. mission was torched - has no effective army or police force at his command.

A year after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, the legacy of four decades of one-man rule - when many formal institutions of statehood withered - and of the popular uprising that killed him, is that an anarchic swarm of militias provides both what passes for official security and poses the main threat to it.

For a year, Libyan leaders, backed by the Western allies, have been gambling they can forge a political consensus which will seize power back from the heavily-armed revolutionaries in the streets before rivalries spin irretrievably out of control.

That time may be running out seems most evident in Benghazi. The consulate attack was only the bloodiest and most recent violence in Libya's second city; the seat of last year's February 17 revolution, it has a history of militant Islam, previously directed against Gaddafi, and deep grievances over western Libya's control of oil pumped out of the east.

As one member of the General National Congress, the interim parliament, put it - so bluntly that he did not wish to say it publicly - the state can probably do no more than contain the mayhem for now, still hoping it can build up its own strength:

"As the saying goes, 'If you can't solve the problem, manage it'," he said. "We need to manage it."

Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagour, elected by the Congress on Wednesday, said establishing the power of the state was still a priority: "We are going to work very vigorously to build our police force, our army," he told Reuters in an interview.

"We have to deal with these militias because some of them have nothing to do with the revolution, and are made up by a bunch of criminals. We have to dismantle them."

However, the failure of successive efforts since last autumn to persuade the ex-rebel militias to disband and disarm, or to transfer loyalties clearly to the interim leadership, itself a fractious body, has left many skeptical of future prospects.

"There is no shortage of weaponry in Libya, but there is an enormous deficit of state capacity," said Geoff Porter, an independent U.S. analyst of North African affairs.

"The gamble for the Libyans was that they would get their political house in order before the security environment became too difficult to contain. The government has lost that bet."

WILD EAST

In Benghazi, the local protection for the U.S. consulate in Libya's oil capital, fulfilling Libya's obligations under the Vienna Conventions on diplomatic missions, was provided by an outfit known as the February 17 Brigade, a collection of young men with rifles proud of their exploits last year in chasing Gaddafi's army west across the desert, aided by NATO bombers.

A second layer of official public order in Benghazi comes courtesy of Libya's Shield, another paramilitary unit born in the revolution and drafted in, ad hoc, by the new leadership.

But as events on Tuesday evening showed, the pro-government forces have far from secured the monopoly on violence which is a key definition of statehood. Others also helped themselves to the weapons left by Gaddafi's disintegrating army and seem prepared to use them against Western and Libyan targets.

When a furious demonstration, emulating a similar embassy protest in neighboring Egypt over an American-made film insulting to the Prophet Mohammad, turned into an assault with machineguns and grenades on the Benghazi consulate, the couple of dozen Libyan guards offered little resistance, Libyan officials in the city said. Outgunned, some guards may also have decided on their own that wrecking the embassy was justified - several Libyan commanders said Washington deserved to suffer.

Among those identified by local people in the crowd were members of a hardline Islamist group, Ansar al-Sharia. Part of a wider Salafist movement that favors a fundamentalist religious state and appears to have some past contact with and sympathies for al Qaeda, Ansar al-Sharia has been accused of involvement in several violent incidents in Benghazi in recent months.

Since Gaddafi fell, there have been fears that some of his weaponry, and enemies, will end up in a wider anti-Western militant movement across north Africa. But such militants are not alone in providing a platform for popular anger in the east against Tripoli's politicians and their allies abroad.

Life and business in Benghazi has been disrupted by sporadic violence and demonstrations, often accompanied by demands for greater autonomy or investment in the east, separated from Tripoli by historic tradition and 1,000 km of desert highway.

"The people who demonstrated in front of the embassy were seriously depressed about their daily lives in Benghazi and not just angry over the film," said Nasser Ahdash, a political analyst living in the city. "The film added to it. But people feel depressed. People need jobs, hope and a feeling like they're not forgotten by the central government.

"If you start with one hardliner, you will get three in Benghazi when they have this depression from seeing that all the economy, the embassies, are in Tripoli, companies are in Tripoli, all the contracts are in Tripoli," he added, arguing that the new government should improve an economic balance which Gaddafi had tilted heavily away from the east of the country.

Saleh Gaouda, a member for Benghazi of the two-month-old Libyan Congress, also blamed the interim authorities for a failure to impose order in the east and to delegate power to local leaders: "The security breaches we are seeing in Benghazi are a direct failure of the government," he said.

"There is no one on the ground in Benghazi who can make the right decision at the right time ... There is no one who can take control of the situation and actually take responsibility."

The immediate impact of the violence is a clear heightening of caution on the part of foreign diplomats and business people, who had already been taking great care in Benghazi following attacks that included a grenade ambush which blasted the convoy of the British ambassador in June. Libyan officials assured diplomats that the security brigades would protect them.

But the killings at the consulate have set back Benghazi's hopes of investment and international favor: "Certainly you will have people questioning whether to go there," one diplomat said. "The overall feeling is one of caution right now."

Tarek Alwan, whose consultancy SOC Libya advises foreign firms on doing business in the country, said: "The impact is great and will lead to more restrictions on travel, higher travel insurance, on development.

"Libya in general and Benghazi specifically will suffer -because we should never bite the hand that helped us."

Security Fears Cloud Libyan Oil Growth

By BENOÎT FAUCON, WSJ

Heightened security fears after the killing of the U.S. envoy to Libya will further slow the return of foreign oil workers to the country, potentially threatening Libya's plans to boost oil output and grow its economy, according to oil company executives and consultants.

"It's a serious blow to Libya in terms of security," said Tarek Alwan, head of consultancy SOC Libya, which advises international companies investing in the North African nation. "It will delay the return of international oil companies and expatriates."

Oil companies were beefing up their security precautions on Wednesday in the aftermath of the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats by suspected religious extremists in the eastern city of Benghazi. One European oil company told visiting foreign staff to stay at their Tripoli hotels as a precautionary measure, according to a Libyan oil professional.

Following the ousting of Moammar Gadhafi last year, Libya has surprised analysts by bringing its oil production close to pre-revolution levels much faster than analysts had expected.

Foreign oil companies with production interests in Libya—such as Germany's Wintershall AG, Eni SpA ENI.MI -0.33% of Italy and Total SA FP.FR -0.35% of France—have sent back expatriate workers.

But even before the U.S. envoy's killing Tuesday, attacks on Western interests in June and political protests this summer had already caused some oil-service companies and those with exploration concessions to revise their staffing plans for Libya.

That threatened the country's plans to boost output to 2.2 million barrels a day over the next three years, up 40% from present levels. Such an increase would be enough to overtake Angola to become the eighth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Back in July, Libyan production dropped by 200,000 barrels a day for a short period when protests over parliamentary elections disrupted operations at the country's largest terminal in el-Sider, in eastern Libya.

When it resumed its operations in May, BP BP.LN -0.45% PLC, which has by far the largest exploration plans in Libya, involving investment of $900 million, said the move would pave the way for a return of its expatriates. But three months on, a spokesman for the British company said it had yet to send its foreign staff back because the situation isn't considered safe enough.

Mr. Alwan said he knew of one international consultancy active in the oil sector had that pulled out completely from Benghazi, the capital of Libya's eastern region where the majority of the country's oil is produced, after a British diplomatic convoy was attacked in June.

When foreign staff return, Libyan oil managers say they are sometimes guarded by armored convoys when traveling to and from the airport. Restaurants where they plan to dine are checked first by security guards.

Once Libya accelerates plans to boost production, the reluctance of foreign oil workers to return could leave the country short of specialists in gas-injection equipment—needed to boost production from existing fields—and geologists and seismic workers needed for exploration of new fields, according to a Libyan oil manager at a large European oil operation.

Still, some Libyan officials are hopeful that the formation of a new government—expected to take place soon following elections in July—will lead to serious measures to improve security.

The tragedy "will be an incentive to be more dedicated about security," said Ahmed Shawki, head of marketing at the state-owned National Oil Co. "Other [oil-producing] countries had a worse situation," he added. "Look at Iraq."

The Killing of US Ambassador in Benghazi

We as many people from all faiths around the world received with great sadness the news of the attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi which resulted in the killing of the Ambassador Chris Stevens and three others.

We strongly condemn such attacks on foreign properties in whole Libya and send our sincere condolences to the families of the victims and the American people. Such actions only represent those who committed them, not the real Libyan people.

The US like many other countries played a vital role in helping us toppling former dictator and his regime.

Here is a picture of him taken a few week ago, sitting on the floor and eating a Libyan dish called Bazen

Arab Bank Plans Return to Libya After Uprising Forces Exit

Arab Bank Plc. (ARBK), Jordan’s largest lender, is seeking to regain access to its Al Wahda bank unit in Libya after last year’s uprising forced it to exit the country.

“As a result of the events which took place in Libya, we have not been involved in the management of Al Wahda bank since early 2011,” Arab Bank Chairman Sabih Al Masri wrote in an e- mailed response to questions to Bloomberg on Sept. 6. “We hope to be in a position to discuss with the new authorities in Libya how we might reengage our presence in the country.”

Amman-based Arab Bank owns 19 percent of Al Wahda, with more than 70 branches across Libya, and has the right to increase that stake to 51 percent, Al Masri said. He took over management of Arab bank on Aug. 26 after former chairman Abdul Hamid Shoman resigned because of differences with the board.

Former Libyan ruler Muammar Qaddafi was killed in October after an eight-month uprising that left thousands dead, one of a series of uprisings against Middle Eastern dictators known as the Arab Spring. The country’s new interim legislature elected Mohammed Yussef Magariaf, leader of the National Front Party, as its head last month as the country rebuilds.

The bank is also studying a possible return to Iraq after the nationalization of its branches in 1964, Al Masri said.

“Given the potential of the Iraqi market, it is natural that at some stage we would study the feasibility of reentering,” he wrote. The bank is present in all Arab countries with the exception of Iraq and Kuwait, he said.

Established in Jerusalem

Arab Bank, established in Jerusalem in 1930 and the first public shareholding company on the Amman stock exchange in 1978, posted net income of $360.3 million for the first half, a 10 percent increase compared with the year earlier period, he said.

Arab Bank fell 0.6 percent to 7.15 Jordanian dinars as of 1:05 p.m. in Amman.

Kuwait-based Al-Rai newspaper reported Aug. 23 that unidentified Qatari investors were in talks to buy a 20.7 percent stake in Arab Bank, controlled by Lebanese former prime minister Saad Hariri through Saudi Oger Ltd., Oger Middle East Holding and BankMed SAL. The report prompted the stock to surge the most in three months on the day, gaining 5 percent.

Arab Bank headquarters will remain in Jordan and the lender has no plans to reduce its workforce or change positions, Masri told a news conference in Amman three days later.

Source: Bloomberg 

NEW OIL/GAS DISCOVERY in LIBYA

Arabian Gulf Oil Company which is a wholly owned by NOC reports that it has drilled the F1-NC4 New Field Wildcat well to a total depth of 10,300 feet. The well is located in Ghadames Basin approximately 150 km Southwest of Tripoli City. The initial production testing from Memouniat, Lower Acacus & Middle Acacua established an oil & gas flow as follows:

Well Name	Formation	Tested Interval (feet)	net pay (feet)	Choke Size (Inch)	Oil Rate bbls/d	Gas rate MMCF/D	Oil Gravity API
F1-NC4	Memouniat	10,000-10,020	20	½	38 Condensate	6.840	62
	Lower Acacus	8,972-8,983	11	½	1,248	0.999	37
		8,298-8,306	8	½	888	0.440	38
		8,111-8,119	8	½	1,050	1.012	39
	Middle Acacus	7,748-7,759	11	½	1,247	1.620	39
		7,701-7,713	12	½	937	3.786	39

Source: NOC website

Libya’s NOC Says 2012 Oil, Gas Revenues To Total $54.9 Billion

Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC). expects to generate $54.9 billion in revenue from oil and natural gas this year, according to a release posted on its website.

The revenue would come from exports and taxes on oil companies operating in the North African country, the NOC said.

Source: Bloomberg 

Libya confounds the many sceptics

When the rebellion against Muammer Gaddafi erupted last year, few gave the opposition movement much of a chance. The popular view was that the rebels were a disorganised tribal rabble who could not hope to demolish the Libyan leader’s supposedly coup-proof regime.

A year on, and not only have Col Gaddafi and his henchmen been consigned firmly to history, but Libya’s subsequent transformation has continued to defy the sceptics. Last weekend’s general election – the first real poll to be held in the country – was another encouraging sign. It went off largely without incident, with turnout high and violence minimal. Thus far at least, there seems to be little evidence of fraud.

The result, too, bucked a regional trend: that of Islamist parties triumphing at the polls. The Alliance of National Forces, a coalition of ostensibly liberal groups under Mahmoud Jibril, appears to have scored a resounding victory – at least in the competition for the 80 seats out of 200 in the general assembly that are awarded to parties under a list system.

While that does not guarantee them an overall victory – the remaining 120 seats are reserved for those standing as independents – it makes such an outcome considerably more likely.

But whatever the final balance of seats, Mr Jibril’s success is welcome, not least because he fought the campaign not on a platform of loose slogans but on a detailed programme of economic and political reform. Whatever government is eventually formed in Tripoli, this will hopefully colour the complexion of policies it pursues.

Even more than its neighbours in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya does not have the luxury of contemplating a long debate about women’s role in society or the political status of religion. Its urgent need is for a restoration of security.

Since Col Gaddafi’s fall, the biggest risk has been that the country might splinter into a patchwork of militia-dominated territories. The baleful example of northern Mali – which is a casualty of the fallout from Libya’s revolution – shows what can happen when ungoverned spaces and private armies are allowed to proliferate. Even now, the possibility of such chaos descending on Libya proper cannot be wholly discounted.

The first priority for the next government must be to inculcate a sense of national purpose, and to build a stable polity in which everyone feels that they have a stake. This means addressing the task of standing down the militias and integrating at least some of their members into an organised national defence force. Only when this is done will it be possible to unlock the interest of foreign and domestic investors. This in turn is vital if Libya’s post Gaddafi advance is to be consolidated.

Source: Financial Times

IMF sees Libya growth skyrocketing 116.6% this year

Economic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Muammar Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

E

conomic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

In a report on Libya's economy conducted by an IMF mission in May but published only now, the Fund forecast growth will skyrocket 116.6% this year, following a contraction of 60% in 2011. Growth next year is expected to ease to 16.5% and 13.2% in 2014, the IMF added.

Such impressive rebounds in growth are not unusual in countries emerging from conflict, as the government pours money into rebuilding projects and pent-up private demand boosts spending.

While Libya's government can afford the current high rates of spending, over the longer term it is not sustainable and will push the budget into deficit from 2015, the IMF estimated.

"A more thorough analysis of sustainability based on the present value of financial assets and future oil extraction indicates that, from 2012, public spending will exceed the sustainable, long-term level by over 10% of GDP," the IMF added.

The IMF warned that continued political uncertainty, insecurity and the possibility of a drop in global oil and gas prices were risks to Libya's outlook.

The oil price at which Libya's budget is balanced has increased to USD 91 per barrel in 2012 from USD 58 a barrel in 2010, and is set to exceed USD 100 a barrel from 2013, the IMF said.

A deeper crisis in the euro zone and sharper slowdown in the world economy could push global oil prices lower, which would be pose challenges for Libya's oil dependent economy, the IMF added.

As Libya's imports return to normal, consumer price inflation should be contained at 10% despite pressure on prices from supply bottlenecks in housing and transportation, the IMF added.

The fund said, however, that a drop in the country's high level of unemployment is not likely without reforms.

Meet Mahmoud Jibril: The Man Who May Be Libya’s First Elected Leader

Following landmark elections this past weekend in Libya, results point to a coalition of moderates and secularists winning the majority of votes. The head of that camp is Mahmoud Jibril, a man once at the heart of the Gaddafi regime who defected to the rebellion last year

JAMES LAWLER DUGGAN / MCT / ZUMA PRESS

Mahmoud Jibril, who heads the centrist National Forces Alliance, holds a press conference in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, on July 8, 2012, one day after the Saturday elections

Back in 2010, TIME paid a visit to Mahmoud Jibril, a U.S.-educated policy wonk in Libya’s capital Tripoli who’d been drafted by Muammar Gaddafi’s government to overhaul the country’s state-run economy after decades of one-man rule. Sitting in his large office in the National Economic Development Board, Jibril laid out a vision for a Western-style government that would transform Libya from a stifling dictatorship into a thriving 21st century country. “There must be a legal frame with division of powers, and the right of free expression,” he told TIME then. “We are very late. We have to shorten the time span of things.”

As it happened, it took a bloody revolution and thousands of deaths, including Gaddafi’s, to shorten the time span for Jibril’s plan — something that seemed unimaginable in 2010. Now, Jibril might finally get his chance to put his vision into practice, thanks to last Saturday’s elections in Libya. Although it could take days for officials to confirm the election results, Jibril’s centrist National Forces Alliance appears certain to have won the vote for a 200-member General National Congress, and while Jibril hasn’t said he intends to be the new leader, the coalition’s victory puts him in place to head Libya’s first elected government in 60 years — and the first to emerge from the Arab Spring that is not dominated by a religious Islamic party.

(PHOTOS: Libyans Turn Out for a Landmark Election)

For the 60-year-old economist with a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Pittsburgh, that is a most surprising career trajectory indeed. Having left to study in the U.S. in 1975, Jibril later consulted several Arab governments in economic management and had little thought of returning to Libya. Then in 2007, he was lured home by the one man who appeared capable enough of pushing through drastic reforms — Gaddafi’s hugely powerful son Saif al-Islam. In his new job, Jibril told the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Gene Cretz, that Libya was “opening widely and very fast,” according to a diplomatic cable written by Cretz in 2009, published by WikiLeaks. In a markedly optimistic report, Cretz said Jibril had convinced him that there were lucrative business opportunities for American companies in Libya. “Jibril is a serious interlocutor who ‘gets’ the U.S. perspective,” he wrote.

Jibril believed that change was possible within the Gaddafi regime, something that has haunted him since. Many Libyans still question Jibril’s role as an insider in the dictatorship, as well as the fact that he hails from Libya’s most populous tribe, al-Warfalla, who claimed long allegiance to Gaddafi rule.

But by early 2011, Jibril had concluded that Saif’s ideas of reform — real or not — were doomed, so long as his father and the conservative henchmen surrounding him remained in power. Jibril slipped out of Tripoli in Feb. 2011 and joined the revolution in Benghazi, where he had been raised. Then, he quickly began pushing world leaders to back the rebels. Equally at home in Western capitals (as Cretz had suggested), Jibril clinched formal recognition for the rebels from President Nicolas Sarkozy in a crucial meeting at the Élysée Palace in March 2011, which presaged NATO’s bombing campaign weeks later. In Tripoli, Saif fumed to TIME that his closest associates — chief among them was Jibril — had betrayed him “big time.” But by then, Jibril’s diplomatic footwork had succeeded, and it was the Gaddafi regime, rather than Saif’s reform plan, that was doomed.

Jibril went on to head the rebel leaders’ National Transitional Council, but many of his colleagues criticized him for failing to delegate responsibilities properly. He quit the job after Gaddafi was killed last October, and began plotting his political future — one rooted in part on his huge success in turning last year’s rebellion into a full-scale revolution. “He was instrumental in getting international approval for the rebels, and everyone gives him credit for that,” says Sami Zaptia, managing editor of the Libya Herald, a new English-language online newspaper. Zaptia believes that Jibril’s tribal background makes him ideally suited to drawing Gaddafi’s old loyalists — including many Warfalla — into supporting the new Libya. “I don’t think you will find many people who will dispute Jibril’s skills as a planner, a strategist and a visionary.”

Even with those skills, Jibril’s new job, either as the leader or as a key strategist, will be no cakewalk. With massive oil reserves and only about 6.3 million people, Libya has the cash with which to implement economic reforms — a far different situation from, say, Egypt, which depends heavily on U.S. aid. Yet countless weapons remain in the hands of potentially hostile militia groups. And youth unemployment remains rampant, according to the African Development Bank.

Jibril will begin with one big advantage, however: a ready-made plan for the future, which he drafted as head of Libya’s Economic Development Board, using consultants from Monitor Group in Cambridge, Mass.; Ernst & Young; and the Oxford Group. At the time those groups were heavily criticized by some Libya watchers for believing that it was possible to reform Libya under Gaddafi — a criticism that proved correct. In an interview on the night Gaddafi was killed last October, Jibril told TIME in Tripoli that Gaddafi’s regime had blocked his reform proposals at every turn. “They took everything they received from us and just threw it in the garbage,” he said. He listed among other plans massive tourism development, solar-power and wind-energy projects along Libya’s long Mediterranean coastline, a drastic overhaul of the outdated education system and a program to mobilize millions of underemployed women. “This is a real road map,” he said. “We have the plan ready.” Now it’s time to dust it off.

Source: World Time 

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/07/11/meet-mahmoud-jibril-the-man-who-may-be-libyas-first-elected-leader/#ixzz20JenJoEa

Top Ten Surprises on Libya’s Election Day

By JUAN COLE

Most Western reporting on Libya is colored by what is in my view a combination of extreme pessimism and sensationalism. It has been suggested that because most reporters don’t stay there for that long, many don’t have a sense of proportion. It is frustrating to have faction-fighting in distant Kufra in the far south color our image of the whole country. Tripoli, a major city of over 2.2 million (think Houston), is not like little distant Kufra, population 60,000 (think Broken Arrow, OK)!

In the run-up to the elections held on Saturday, a lot of the headlines read ‘Libya votes, on the brink’ or had ‘Chaos’ in the title. But actually, as the Libya Herald reports, the election went very, very well (which did not surprise me after my visit to three major cities there in May-June). The NYT post-election headline of ‘Libyans risk violence to vote’ is frankly ridiculous; in most of the country that simply was not true, though it was true in parts of Benghazi. Even then, how many people died in violence in this election? I count two, but in any case it is a small number. In Tripoli, the election was described as a big family wedding, with lots of loud celebration and tears of joy. Here are the top ten surprises of the election for Libya watchers:

1. Turnout was about 60%, with 1.6 million casting their ballots. This high turnout is especially impressive given how confusing the election procedures were, with 3,000 candidates and only 80 seats out of 200 set aside for political parties (most newly formed and not well known).

2. There was relatively little election violence, certainly compared to South Asia, where election day often entails dozens, sometimes hundreds, of deaths. The Libya Herald piece quotes the High Electoral Commission as saying, “…of 1,554 polling centres across the country, 24 were unable to operate, including two in Kufra, six in Sidra and eight in Benghazi.”

3. The remnants of Qaddafi supporters made no trouble, and many went to vote enthusiastically. One of the many wrong predictions made last year by opponents of the revolution was that after it was over, there would be an Iraq-style pro-Qaddafi resistance. It turns out that Qaddafi wasn’t actually popular, and now that he is gone no one is interested in making trouble in his name.

4. One of the last cities to fall to the revolutionaries was Bani Walid, and it was alleged for a long time after the revolution to be in the hands of Qaddafi loyalists. This allegation was always a vast exaggeration. There were only a few militiamen there, who made demonstrations downtown. In fact, if anything, it was the revolutionary militias that controlled a city that somewhat resented them because of their high-handedness. Luke Harding of The Guardian, who bothered actually to go to Bani Walid, found people there as excited about the elections as elsewhere, and eager to combat their city’s reputation as a refuge of former regime loyalists. 46,000 had registered to vote, out of 85,000 inhabitants– i.e. most of those eligible to vote must have registered.

5. The formerly upscale city of Sirte, which had been seen by the revolutionaries as favored by Qaddafi, and near which he made his last stand, decided not to boycott the vote after all, according both to Agence France Press and to the following:

Rena Netjes ‏@RenaNetjes

Corresp alHurraTV in ‪#Sirte‬: “Turnout 70%, women 35-40%. Ppl very very happy to be able to vote for the 1st time” ‪#Lyelect‬.

There are genuine resentments toward Sirte on the part of the revolutionary cities, and locals complain about discrimination of various sorts. They clearly feel that being well represented in the new parliament is a way of gaining a voice and being reintegrated into the new Libya. It was places like Bani Walid and Sirte from which trouble on election day had been expected, and it did not happen.

6. The Muslim fundamentalist parties that were expected to dominate the new parliament may not do so. First of all, only 80 of the 200 seats are allocated to parties, and the liberal party of former head of Qaddafi’s National Economic Development Board, Mahmoud Jibril, is said to be doing well in early returns and exit polls. Because of the large number of independents and uncertainty with whom they will caucus, predictions about the shape of the government are premature. The West is more secular than the east or the south. In Libya, the remnants of the old regime are called ‘seaweed’ or ‘algae’ (tahallub), i.e. the flotsam left behind when the tide recedes. As in Tunisia and Egypt, there has been a lot of debate around what to do with them. They often have a lot of money, and are regrouping to succeed in the new system. Since a lot of prominent Libyan technocrats had been lured back to the country in the past decade, with Qaddafi’s and his son Saif al-Islam’s attempt to open to the West, leaders like Mahmoud Jibril (al-Warfalli) are considered by some to be leftovers, while others see him as someone who went over to the revolution and served as its first transitional prime minister.

7. Despite the faction-fighting that has plagued some desert cities, such as Zintan and Kufra, in southwest Tripolitania and the Fezzan region of Libya, respectively– its third traditional region after Tripolitania and Cyrenaica– went to the polls quietly and peaceably for the most part. Two of the polling stations in feud-ridden Kufra could not open because of tension. Here’s what my Jabal Nafusa and Fezzan twitter feed looked like:

“Women crowds in Zintan for voting …

9:16 AM – 7 Jul 12 via Twitter for iPhone ·

22h Libya.elHurra Libya.elHurra ‏@FreeBenghazi

July7: Election observers at a Zintan polling station. Reports of good turnout from women but no pics yet ‪#Libya‬

20h AC Tripolis AC Tripolis ‏@david_bachmann_

Very big crowd in front of voting room for people from ‪#Ghadames‬ – quite noisy, but relaxed ‪#LyElect‬ ‪#gheryan‬ ‪#Libya‬”

8. A big surprise is that what little election day trouble there was came from the East, from the center of the revolution. Thus, small crowds or small militia contingents attacked or tried to attack polling stations in Ajdabiya, Sidra, Ras Lanouf and Benghazi itself. But aside from a few stations in Sidra and 8 in Benghazi, all of them reopened and some stayed open till midnight to make up for having been closed in the morning. In one incident in Benghazi,pro-election crowds actually drove off a group of states’ rights protesters who want decentralization.

9. Women registered to vote, ran for office, and went to the polling stations in surprisingly high numbers. In some small cities, eyewitnesses thought the women’s lines were much longer than those of the men.

10. Among this generation of Libyans, democracy is really, really popular.