Benghazi attack a short-term setback for Libya investment revival

(Reuters) - The taxi driver parked outside a luxury hotel in Tripoli says most of his business there has ground to a halt in the past two weeks.

Since an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on September 11 killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, heightening fears for the safety of Westerners in Libya, there have been fewer foreign customers requesting his services.

"There has been a change, the foreigners are much more cautious now," the driver, who did not wish to be named so as not to be recognized, said. "They won't just come up to the taxi rank, they want to be careful. Some have gone, others are staying inside the hotel. But they're not going out with us."

The assault on the U.S. diplomatic mission was the most serious security incident in Libya since the end of the eight-month uprising that finished Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year rule last year.

Coupled with a lull in policymaking as the country awaits a new government that will take over soon from the interim administration, the attack risks scaring off foreign investors in the short term. It will also pressure the new administration to focus heavily on security, which could further delay much-needed reforms and reconstruction in Libya.

Security has been an issue as the country's new rulers have struggled to contain armed militias who have refused to give up their weapons since the war ended.

The Benghazi attack has led many companies to beef up security measures in Libyan cities, restricting staff movements, and as embassies warn against non-essential travel to the North African country, risk premiums are rising.

"Suddenly you will have people who won't be able to come because of insurance - companies may not send them because they see Libya as too risky," one foreign businessman in Tripoli said. "That will slow things down. And for those who had plans to bring their families here, that will be postponed."

Libya had been making progress in trying to attract foreign investment and stimulate its private sector: officials have been working to update a 2005 banking law which first allowed foreign banks into the country and have plans to introduce Islamic banking.

International oil companies were the first to return to the country after the uprising, helping oil production return to almost pre-war levels of 1.6 million barrels per day.

But recovery has been prone to setbacks: in July around half of Libya's oil-exporting capacity was temporarily shut down after protests by groups demanding more autonomy for eastern Libya, the source of most of the country's oil.

Major construction and transport projects have been untouched since last year, awaiting the authorities' approval to resume.

"The incoming government's focus will be so much on security, which has always rightly been a priority but there is now an added risk that restarting essential infrastructure projects may be put down the agenda in the immediate term," said Alex Warren of research and advisory firm Frontier, which runs The Libya Report business website.

Benghazi air space was temporarily closed after the attack, expatriate workers in the eastern city were relocated to Tripoli or fled overseas, and a British trade delegation was cancelled.

"What happened in Benghazi has a very negative impact because it may lead foreign businessmen to freeze plans to come and invest in Libya," said Issa al-Babaa, executive director of the Libyan Businessmen Council.

Yet the country's tiny stock market has barely reacted, dipping less than half a percent in the two weeks since the attack, according to Ahmed Karoud, general manager of the stock exchange, which lists about a dozen local companies.

That suggests the Benghazi attack may not have a lasting impact on business and, like in Iraq, foreign investors in the longer term may be willing to invest there despite security concerns if they see high returns.

CRACKDOWN ON MILITIAS

Many investors, including Chinese companies expected to bid for infrastructure projects, may not be deterred as violence has been directed mainly at Western targets.

"Given the current state of the economy, I don't think it's affected the macro picture or overall GDP growth. Oil production and trade has not been disrupted, there are no tourists to scare off and foreign investment is minimal at the moment," said Warren.

"But it's going to make it more difficult to move away from those current dynamics. Sentiment has been affected and the government will have to work harder to persuade foreign companies to come to Libya in the short term, given the added risk they will feel is involved."

Keen to make a break from the Gaddafi regime, the interim government said no major new concessions would be awarded until after the national assembly elections that were held in July.

The International Monetary Fund forecast in July that Libya's gross domestic product would double this year after shrinking 60 percent last year, helped by rebuilding and the release of pent-up private demand.

The attack is unlikely to hurt growth when oil accounts for the lion's share of revenues.

Libya aims to raise its oil production to 1.8 million bpd next year, above levels seen before the uprising.

But no new exploration and production contracts are expected for at least a year before a clearer landscape emerges from the OPEC member's democratic transition.

Gaddafi isolated the economy from much foreign competition, reserving licenses and contracts for his own circle, which makes some sectors attractive now he is gone, including telecommunications.

There are only two mobile operators, Al Madar and Libyana, which are both state-owned and a number of foreign telecom operators have been eying Libya including Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar Telecom (Qtel) and Saudi Telecom.

Business potential highlights a lack of infrastructure which the new government will quickly need to address. In 2010, 14 percent of people in Libya were using the Internet, according to the International Telecommunications Union, compared with 49 percent in Morocco, 37 percent inTunisia and 27 percent in Egypt.

The stock exchange has wanted to attract more foreign investors to trade shares since it reopened in February after closing during the war, but says rules on bringing funds into the country need to be relaxed.

"We are waiting for the new government to be formed. Nothing is known until then and we hope it will be stronger in making decisions," said Karoud.

The killings in Benghazi fuelled public anger at the continued presence on the streets of armed units, driving an Islamist militia, Ansar al-Sharia, out of the city on Saturday while the army ordered unauthorized armed groups to leave public premises in Tripoli as leaders vowed to dissolve rogue militias.

Central Bank Governor Saddek Omar Elkaber said the crackdown would be positive for the investment climate.

"What happened at the consulate eats away at the trust that has been gained in Libya," he said. "The steps now being taken are the right ones, it will help renew the trust for foreign investors."

In Benghazi itself, birthplace of the revolution, recovery could take longer, delaying regeneration after decades of neglect under Gaddafi, who fashioned the capital Tripoli into his power base at Benghazi's expense, its residents say.

"The events (are) going to delay things even more. Things were starting to look on the up. That is going to set them back, which is unfortunate," said Richard Weeks, a British engineer who has lived in Benghazi for more than 20 years.

Libya's second city, Benghazi is a major oil port but many foreigners working there were evacuated after the attack. Even before that, the city had seen several attacks on Western missions and organizations.

"Libya needs foreign business partners," a European worker said as he left Libya temporarily following the attack.

"But when even friendly Arab businessman are planning to leave and there is no government support to foreign companies, there are a lot of question marks."

Security Fears Cloud Libyan Oil Growth

By BENOÎT FAUCON, WSJ

Heightened security fears after the killing of the U.S. envoy to Libya will further slow the return of foreign oil workers to the country, potentially threatening Libya's plans to boost oil output and grow its economy, according to oil company executives and consultants.

"It's a serious blow to Libya in terms of security," said Tarek Alwan, head of consultancy SOC Libya, which advises international companies investing in the North African nation. "It will delay the return of international oil companies and expatriates."

Oil companies were beefing up their security precautions on Wednesday in the aftermath of the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats by suspected religious extremists in the eastern city of Benghazi. One European oil company told visiting foreign staff to stay at their Tripoli hotels as a precautionary measure, according to a Libyan oil professional.

Following the ousting of Moammar Gadhafi last year, Libya has surprised analysts by bringing its oil production close to pre-revolution levels much faster than analysts had expected.

Foreign oil companies with production interests in Libya—such as Germany's Wintershall AG, Eni SpA ENI.MI -0.33% of Italy and Total SA FP.FR -0.35% of France—have sent back expatriate workers.

But even before the U.S. envoy's killing Tuesday, attacks on Western interests in June and political protests this summer had already caused some oil-service companies and those with exploration concessions to revise their staffing plans for Libya.

That threatened the country's plans to boost output to 2.2 million barrels a day over the next three years, up 40% from present levels. Such an increase would be enough to overtake Angola to become the eighth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Back in July, Libyan production dropped by 200,000 barrels a day for a short period when protests over parliamentary elections disrupted operations at the country's largest terminal in el-Sider, in eastern Libya.

When it resumed its operations in May, BP BP.LN -0.45% PLC, which has by far the largest exploration plans in Libya, involving investment of $900 million, said the move would pave the way for a return of its expatriates. But three months on, a spokesman for the British company said it had yet to send its foreign staff back because the situation isn't considered safe enough.

Mr. Alwan said he knew of one international consultancy active in the oil sector had that pulled out completely from Benghazi, the capital of Libya's eastern region where the majority of the country's oil is produced, after a British diplomatic convoy was attacked in June.

When foreign staff return, Libyan oil managers say they are sometimes guarded by armored convoys when traveling to and from the airport. Restaurants where they plan to dine are checked first by security guards.

Once Libya accelerates plans to boost production, the reluctance of foreign oil workers to return could leave the country short of specialists in gas-injection equipment—needed to boost production from existing fields—and geologists and seismic workers needed for exploration of new fields, according to a Libyan oil manager at a large European oil operation.

Still, some Libyan officials are hopeful that the formation of a new government—expected to take place soon following elections in July—will lead to serious measures to improve security.

The tragedy "will be an incentive to be more dedicated about security," said Ahmed Shawki, head of marketing at the state-owned National Oil Co. "Other [oil-producing] countries had a worse situation," he added. "Look at Iraq."

The Killing of US Ambassador in Benghazi

We as many people from all faiths around the world received with great sadness the news of the attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi which resulted in the killing of the Ambassador Chris Stevens and three others.

We strongly condemn such attacks on foreign properties in whole Libya and send our sincere condolences to the families of the victims and the American people. Such actions only represent those who committed them, not the real Libyan people.

The US like many other countries played a vital role in helping us toppling former dictator and his regime.

Here is a picture of him taken a few week ago, sitting on the floor and eating a Libyan dish called Bazen

Libya confounds the many sceptics

When the rebellion against Muammer Gaddafi erupted last year, few gave the opposition movement much of a chance. The popular view was that the rebels were a disorganised tribal rabble who could not hope to demolish the Libyan leader’s supposedly coup-proof regime.

A year on, and not only have Col Gaddafi and his henchmen been consigned firmly to history, but Libya’s subsequent transformation has continued to defy the sceptics. Last weekend’s general election – the first real poll to be held in the country – was another encouraging sign. It went off largely without incident, with turnout high and violence minimal. Thus far at least, there seems to be little evidence of fraud.

The result, too, bucked a regional trend: that of Islamist parties triumphing at the polls. The Alliance of National Forces, a coalition of ostensibly liberal groups under Mahmoud Jibril, appears to have scored a resounding victory – at least in the competition for the 80 seats out of 200 in the general assembly that are awarded to parties under a list system.

While that does not guarantee them an overall victory – the remaining 120 seats are reserved for those standing as independents – it makes such an outcome considerably more likely.

But whatever the final balance of seats, Mr Jibril’s success is welcome, not least because he fought the campaign not on a platform of loose slogans but on a detailed programme of economic and political reform. Whatever government is eventually formed in Tripoli, this will hopefully colour the complexion of policies it pursues.

Even more than its neighbours in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya does not have the luxury of contemplating a long debate about women’s role in society or the political status of religion. Its urgent need is for a restoration of security.

Since Col Gaddafi’s fall, the biggest risk has been that the country might splinter into a patchwork of militia-dominated territories. The baleful example of northern Mali – which is a casualty of the fallout from Libya’s revolution – shows what can happen when ungoverned spaces and private armies are allowed to proliferate. Even now, the possibility of such chaos descending on Libya proper cannot be wholly discounted.

The first priority for the next government must be to inculcate a sense of national purpose, and to build a stable polity in which everyone feels that they have a stake. This means addressing the task of standing down the militias and integrating at least some of their members into an organised national defence force. Only when this is done will it be possible to unlock the interest of foreign and domestic investors. This in turn is vital if Libya’s post Gaddafi advance is to be consolidated.

Source: Financial Times

Libyan official urges US investment to create jobs for rebels

A top Libyan official urged U.S. companies on Monday to help create jobs for former rebel fighters who still have not laid down their guns, by making investments that could transform the country into a peaceful tourist destination.

"These young people, they need challenges. They need jobs. As long they have no jobs, they're going to have Kalashnikovs and they're going to be in the streets, probably creating check points," Libyan Deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abushagur told the National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce (NUSACC) in Washington.

In a fresh challenge on Monday to the interim Libyan government's authority, members of a Libyan militia known as the al-Awfea Brigade occupied Tripoli's international airport to demand the release of their leader, who they said was being held by Tripoli's security forces.

The militia action forced the cancellation of several international flights just as a NUSACC-led trade mission was due to arrive in the country for meetings beginning on Thursday in Tripoli, Benghazi and Misrata.

While Abushagur did not directly address the situation at Tripoli airport, he sought to reassure the Washington-based business group that Libya was making progress on the many security challenges it faces following last year's war that toppled Muammar Gaddafi after 42 years.

He also told the business representatives Libya was "ahead of schedule" in restoring oil production and had already reached 90 percent of pre-revolution levels.

Abushagur said Libya had massive investment needs in sectors such as infrastructure, telecommunications and health after four decades of neglect and the recent war.

"Our economy is based on one thing: pumping oil from the ground. We need to change that," he said adding that the aim was that in 10 years time, oil should account for only 30 to 40 percent of the economy, instead of roughly 70 percent now.

Abushagur said he saw lots of opportunity for Libya in areas such as tourism, mining and knowledge-based industries.

NUSACC is also targeting these sectors for its upcoming trade mission, along with agribusiness; architecture and design; automotive services and equipment; construction and engineering; defense and security; oil and gas and water and wastewater.

Another major challenge facing Libya is securing its borders from its poorer neighbors, Abushagur said.

He said most economic refugees from Africa who passed through Libya were seeking to reach Europe and many died during the dangerous sea crossing.

Meanwhile, many wealthy Libyans who fled the country during the civil war had yet to return, he said.

Abushagur said that Libya, as a new nation, was "very committed to human rights" and any citizen who had fled and was accused of a crime would get a fair trial if they returned.

At the same time, he said, when it came to those who "have stolen Libyan money, we are going to go after them because we believe that every dollar that belongs to Libya has to come back."

Source: Reuters

www.soclibya.com