IMF sees Libya growth skyrocketing 116.6% this year

Economic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Muammar Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

E

conomic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

In a report on Libya's economy conducted by an IMF mission in May but published only now, the Fund forecast growth will skyrocket 116.6% this year, following a contraction of 60% in 2011. Growth next year is expected to ease to 16.5% and 13.2% in 2014, the IMF added.

Such impressive rebounds in growth are not unusual in countries emerging from conflict, as the government pours money into rebuilding projects and pent-up private demand boosts spending.

While Libya's government can afford the current high rates of spending, over the longer term it is not sustainable and will push the budget into deficit from 2015, the IMF estimated.

"A more thorough analysis of sustainability based on the present value of financial assets and future oil extraction indicates that, from 2012, public spending will exceed the sustainable, long-term level by over 10% of GDP," the IMF added.

The IMF warned that continued political uncertainty, insecurity and the possibility of a drop in global oil and gas prices were risks to Libya's outlook.

The oil price at which Libya's budget is balanced has increased to USD 91 per barrel in 2012 from USD 58 a barrel in 2010, and is set to exceed USD 100 a barrel from 2013, the IMF said.

A deeper crisis in the euro zone and sharper slowdown in the world economy could push global oil prices lower, which would be pose challenges for Libya's oil dependent economy, the IMF added.

As Libya's imports return to normal, consumer price inflation should be contained at 10% despite pressure on prices from supply bottlenecks in housing and transportation, the IMF added.

The fund said, however, that a drop in the country's high level of unemployment is not likely without reforms.

Meet Mahmoud Jibril: The Man Who May Be Libya’s First Elected Leader

Following landmark elections this past weekend in Libya, results point to a coalition of moderates and secularists winning the majority of votes. The head of that camp is Mahmoud Jibril, a man once at the heart of the Gaddafi regime who defected to the rebellion last year

JAMES LAWLER DUGGAN / MCT / ZUMA PRESS

Mahmoud Jibril, who heads the centrist National Forces Alliance, holds a press conference in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, on July 8, 2012, one day after the Saturday elections

Back in 2010, TIME paid a visit to Mahmoud Jibril, a U.S.-educated policy wonk in Libya’s capital Tripoli who’d been drafted by Muammar Gaddafi’s government to overhaul the country’s state-run economy after decades of one-man rule. Sitting in his large office in the National Economic Development Board, Jibril laid out a vision for a Western-style government that would transform Libya from a stifling dictatorship into a thriving 21st century country. “There must be a legal frame with division of powers, and the right of free expression,” he told TIME then. “We are very late. We have to shorten the time span of things.”

As it happened, it took a bloody revolution and thousands of deaths, including Gaddafi’s, to shorten the time span for Jibril’s plan — something that seemed unimaginable in 2010. Now, Jibril might finally get his chance to put his vision into practice, thanks to last Saturday’s elections in Libya. Although it could take days for officials to confirm the election results, Jibril’s centrist National Forces Alliance appears certain to have won the vote for a 200-member General National Congress, and while Jibril hasn’t said he intends to be the new leader, the coalition’s victory puts him in place to head Libya’s first elected government in 60 years — and the first to emerge from the Arab Spring that is not dominated by a religious Islamic party.

(PHOTOS: Libyans Turn Out for a Landmark Election)

For the 60-year-old economist with a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Pittsburgh, that is a most surprising career trajectory indeed. Having left to study in the U.S. in 1975, Jibril later consulted several Arab governments in economic management and had little thought of returning to Libya. Then in 2007, he was lured home by the one man who appeared capable enough of pushing through drastic reforms — Gaddafi’s hugely powerful son Saif al-Islam. In his new job, Jibril told the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Gene Cretz, that Libya was “opening widely and very fast,” according to a diplomatic cable written by Cretz in 2009, published by WikiLeaks. In a markedly optimistic report, Cretz said Jibril had convinced him that there were lucrative business opportunities for American companies in Libya. “Jibril is a serious interlocutor who ‘gets’ the U.S. perspective,” he wrote.

Jibril believed that change was possible within the Gaddafi regime, something that has haunted him since. Many Libyans still question Jibril’s role as an insider in the dictatorship, as well as the fact that he hails from Libya’s most populous tribe, al-Warfalla, who claimed long allegiance to Gaddafi rule.

But by early 2011, Jibril had concluded that Saif’s ideas of reform — real or not — were doomed, so long as his father and the conservative henchmen surrounding him remained in power. Jibril slipped out of Tripoli in Feb. 2011 and joined the revolution in Benghazi, where he had been raised. Then, he quickly began pushing world leaders to back the rebels. Equally at home in Western capitals (as Cretz had suggested), Jibril clinched formal recognition for the rebels from President Nicolas Sarkozy in a crucial meeting at the Élysée Palace in March 2011, which presaged NATO’s bombing campaign weeks later. In Tripoli, Saif fumed to TIME that his closest associates — chief among them was Jibril — had betrayed him “big time.” But by then, Jibril’s diplomatic footwork had succeeded, and it was the Gaddafi regime, rather than Saif’s reform plan, that was doomed.

Jibril went on to head the rebel leaders’ National Transitional Council, but many of his colleagues criticized him for failing to delegate responsibilities properly. He quit the job after Gaddafi was killed last October, and began plotting his political future — one rooted in part on his huge success in turning last year’s rebellion into a full-scale revolution. “He was instrumental in getting international approval for the rebels, and everyone gives him credit for that,” says Sami Zaptia, managing editor of the Libya Herald, a new English-language online newspaper. Zaptia believes that Jibril’s tribal background makes him ideally suited to drawing Gaddafi’s old loyalists — including many Warfalla — into supporting the new Libya. “I don’t think you will find many people who will dispute Jibril’s skills as a planner, a strategist and a visionary.”

Even with those skills, Jibril’s new job, either as the leader or as a key strategist, will be no cakewalk. With massive oil reserves and only about 6.3 million people, Libya has the cash with which to implement economic reforms — a far different situation from, say, Egypt, which depends heavily on U.S. aid. Yet countless weapons remain in the hands of potentially hostile militia groups. And youth unemployment remains rampant, according to the African Development Bank.

Jibril will begin with one big advantage, however: a ready-made plan for the future, which he drafted as head of Libya’s Economic Development Board, using consultants from Monitor Group in Cambridge, Mass.; Ernst & Young; and the Oxford Group. At the time those groups were heavily criticized by some Libya watchers for believing that it was possible to reform Libya under Gaddafi — a criticism that proved correct. In an interview on the night Gaddafi was killed last October, Jibril told TIME in Tripoli that Gaddafi’s regime had blocked his reform proposals at every turn. “They took everything they received from us and just threw it in the garbage,” he said. He listed among other plans massive tourism development, solar-power and wind-energy projects along Libya’s long Mediterranean coastline, a drastic overhaul of the outdated education system and a program to mobilize millions of underemployed women. “This is a real road map,” he said. “We have the plan ready.” Now it’s time to dust it off.

Source: World Time 

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/07/11/meet-mahmoud-jibril-the-man-who-may-be-libyas-first-elected-leader/#ixzz20JenJoEa

Mideast tourism has bright future

UNWTO projects 7% annual growth over 20 years

Despite events of the Arab Spring, and potential uncertainty in the wake of austerity measures in key source European markets, there is a bright future ahead for tourism in the Middle East and North Africa, according to a consensus of delegates at the first United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and Arabian Travel Market industry forum.

The summit, which took place at Arabian Travel Market on Monday, is now set to become an annual fixture that brings together both government and private sector officials to seek common goals and mutual benefits from the promotion of travel in to the region.

Speaking at the forum, UNWTO Secretary-General, Taleb Rifai, called the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region a “tourism success story in the first decade of the 21st century”, with the majority of markets already showing a strong rebound following the challenges of the last 12 months.

Rifai also shared some insight into the regional situation and gave a positive prognosis for the future. “We are very impressed by the rate of recovery of some of the most affected countries in the region. Countries that were directly affected, like Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen, saw a downturn of 80 to 85 per cent as political events unfolded, but minimised their losses considerably in 2011, closing the year down by 25 to 30 per cent.”

“The potential for growth is still excellent as we are starting from a low nominal base in the region. Even with 79 to 80 million tourist arrivals, the region has less than 8 per cent of the world’s intake of tourists, which currently stands at almost one billion. The MENA region deserves much more,” he added.

While UNWTO statistics recorded the loss of an estimated seven million tourists across the region last year, the organisation is projecting a seven per cent annual growth rate over the next 20 years with visitor totals hitting 195 million by 2030, up from 79 million in 2010.

Setting an optimistic tone, Egypt’s Minister of Tourism, HE Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour said first quarter visitor figures indicated the country was on the right track to return to the level of 2010 numbers by the end of the year, following a downturn of 33 per cent in 2011.

Tarak Labib, Regional Director of Sales Egypt, Hilton Worldwide, said, “The local market was a saviour for our resorts, and we were already seeing business come back by the end of March/early April,” he said.

Leanne Harwood, Vice President of Commercial for India, Middle East and Africa, InterContinental Hotel Group, took a more cautious stance, and noted that until “Egypt stops being on the front page, it’s difficult to see some stability but we’ve seen losses drop to 30 per cent from 80 per cent, so [the market is] definitely rebounding.”

Jordan Tourist Board director, Dr Abdelrazzak Arabiyat proposed joint marketing and packages. “In order to capitalise on long haul markets, we believe we have to combine packages with neighbours to offer Dubai and Jordan, Egypt and Jordan, Oman and Jordan,” he said.

His view was echoed by the minister of tourism for Oman, Her Excellency Maitha Al Mahrouqi who said, “Oman has its own elements, but we can work with others to package together, as well as increasing visa co-operation.”

Looking ahead, Rifai identified certain destinations as ‘ones to watch’. “There are a number of attractive untouched destinations that need a lot of investment, such as Libya and Algeria. These are sleeping giants” he said.

According to Reed Travel Exhibitions’ Portfolio Director, Mark Walsh, the summit was set to become an essential forum for regional issues facing the travel and tourism sector.

“While every destination has its priorities and strategies, there is a common goal to promote the region and we are delighted at the level of participation in this inaugural event which demonstrates a will to work together at all levels,” he concluded.

Source: Emirates247

London reaffirms commitment to Libya

A visit to Tripoli will give the British government the   opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to an emerging Libyan government, a British official said. British Minister for the Middle East Alistair Burt arrived in Tripoli Tuesday. He said he would formalize a British Embassy office in the former rebel capital Benghazi and open a visa application center in Tripoli during his two-day visit to Libya.

"I am delighted to return to Libya at a key stage in its  transition as the Libyan people prepare for their first  democratic elections in over 40 years," he said in a statement. "I look forward to reaffirming the U.K.'s commitment to Libya."

The British military was part of the NATO-led intervention in Libya last year meant to protect civilians from attacks by forces loyal to leader Moammar Gadhafi. Since Gadhafi's death in October, the new interim government has set the stage for national elections but dealt with internal clashes and autonomy bids.

British lawmakers are investigating their country's alleged involvement in so-called extraordinary renditions of Libyan nationals.

Burt's visit coincides with an international oil and natural gas investment conference in Tripoli.

Source: UPI