Security Fears Cloud Libyan Oil Growth

By BENOÎT FAUCON, WSJ

Heightened security fears after the killing of the U.S. envoy to Libya will further slow the return of foreign oil workers to the country, potentially threatening Libya's plans to boost oil output and grow its economy, according to oil company executives and consultants.

"It's a serious blow to Libya in terms of security," said Tarek Alwan, head of consultancy SOC Libya, which advises international companies investing in the North African nation. "It will delay the return of international oil companies and expatriates."

Oil companies were beefing up their security precautions on Wednesday in the aftermath of the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats by suspected religious extremists in the eastern city of Benghazi. One European oil company told visiting foreign staff to stay at their Tripoli hotels as a precautionary measure, according to a Libyan oil professional.

Following the ousting of Moammar Gadhafi last year, Libya has surprised analysts by bringing its oil production close to pre-revolution levels much faster than analysts had expected.

Foreign oil companies with production interests in Libya—such as Germany's Wintershall AG, Eni SpA ENI.MI -0.33% of Italy and Total SA FP.FR -0.35% of France—have sent back expatriate workers.

But even before the U.S. envoy's killing Tuesday, attacks on Western interests in June and political protests this summer had already caused some oil-service companies and those with exploration concessions to revise their staffing plans for Libya.

That threatened the country's plans to boost output to 2.2 million barrels a day over the next three years, up 40% from present levels. Such an increase would be enough to overtake Angola to become the eighth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Back in July, Libyan production dropped by 200,000 barrels a day for a short period when protests over parliamentary elections disrupted operations at the country's largest terminal in el-Sider, in eastern Libya.

When it resumed its operations in May, BP BP.LN -0.45% PLC, which has by far the largest exploration plans in Libya, involving investment of $900 million, said the move would pave the way for a return of its expatriates. But three months on, a spokesman for the British company said it had yet to send its foreign staff back because the situation isn't considered safe enough.

Mr. Alwan said he knew of one international consultancy active in the oil sector had that pulled out completely from Benghazi, the capital of Libya's eastern region where the majority of the country's oil is produced, after a British diplomatic convoy was attacked in June.

When foreign staff return, Libyan oil managers say they are sometimes guarded by armored convoys when traveling to and from the airport. Restaurants where they plan to dine are checked first by security guards.

Once Libya accelerates plans to boost production, the reluctance of foreign oil workers to return could leave the country short of specialists in gas-injection equipment—needed to boost production from existing fields—and geologists and seismic workers needed for exploration of new fields, according to a Libyan oil manager at a large European oil operation.

Still, some Libyan officials are hopeful that the formation of a new government—expected to take place soon following elections in July—will lead to serious measures to improve security.

The tragedy "will be an incentive to be more dedicated about security," said Ahmed Shawki, head of marketing at the state-owned National Oil Co. "Other [oil-producing] countries had a worse situation," he added. "Look at Iraq."

IMF sees Libya growth skyrocketing 116.6% this year

Economic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Muammar Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

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conomic activity in Libya is likely to rebound this year as the country rebuilds from civil war and oil production increases to levels last seen during Gaddafi's rule, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

In a report on Libya's economy conducted by an IMF mission in May but published only now, the Fund forecast growth will skyrocket 116.6% this year, following a contraction of 60% in 2011. Growth next year is expected to ease to 16.5% and 13.2% in 2014, the IMF added.

Such impressive rebounds in growth are not unusual in countries emerging from conflict, as the government pours money into rebuilding projects and pent-up private demand boosts spending.

While Libya's government can afford the current high rates of spending, over the longer term it is not sustainable and will push the budget into deficit from 2015, the IMF estimated.

"A more thorough analysis of sustainability based on the present value of financial assets and future oil extraction indicates that, from 2012, public spending will exceed the sustainable, long-term level by over 10% of GDP," the IMF added.

The IMF warned that continued political uncertainty, insecurity and the possibility of a drop in global oil and gas prices were risks to Libya's outlook.

The oil price at which Libya's budget is balanced has increased to USD 91 per barrel in 2012 from USD 58 a barrel in 2010, and is set to exceed USD 100 a barrel from 2013, the IMF said.

A deeper crisis in the euro zone and sharper slowdown in the world economy could push global oil prices lower, which would be pose challenges for Libya's oil dependent economy, the IMF added.

As Libya's imports return to normal, consumer price inflation should be contained at 10% despite pressure on prices from supply bottlenecks in housing and transportation, the IMF added.

The fund said, however, that a drop in the country's high level of unemployment is not likely without reforms.

Libya Seeks U.S. Investment in Areas From Oil to Tourism

Libya is seeking to boost its oil production by a third to 2 million barrels a day by year-end, surpassing last year’s pre-conflict level, Libyan ambassador to Washington Ali Aujali said.

How fast Libya returns to pre-war levels or surpasses them “depends also on the oil companies, how fast they are returning” to restart or expand operations, Aujali said, speaking at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in Washington yesterday.

Beyond oil, Libya is eager for American investment in tourism, health care and education, he said. The nation, whose governance is still in flux, plans to hold the first election for the national assembly next month after four decades of rule by dictator Muammar Qaddafi.

“The environment is great” for U.S. companies, in large part because the Obama administration is credited by Libyans with pressing for NATO military action that helped topple Qaddafi last year, Aujali said.

“They appreciate what the Americans did,” he said, and American flags are often flown alongside Libyan ones around the country.

Libya’s governor for OPEC, Samir Kamal, set expectations lower than Aujali did, telling reporters last week in Vienna that the government hopes to reach 1.6 million barrels a day by year-end.

Aujali said the North African nation has restored crude oil production to more than 1.5 million barrels a day, or 90 percent of official production figures before Qaddafi was ousted in a violent uprising. The months-long conflict sent production levels plummeting to 45,000 barrels a day in August, according to a monthly Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

Rising Output

Libyan production was restored to 1.45 million to 1.55 million barrels daily by the end of May, according to figures from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Oil Minister Abdul-Rahman Ben Yezza said last week that Libya plans to spend about $10 billion to develop long-term oil and natural gas projects and increase its crude production capacity. He said the country also has a five-year plan to increase production to about 2.2 million barrels a day.

Aujali said “we need more investment” to develop the oil industry and fulfill a longer-term goal of restoring Libya’s crude production capacity to its historical high. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates it exceeded 3 million barrels a day in the 1960s.

Aujali cited ConocoPhillips (COP) (COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) (OXY) as among U.S.-based multinational energy giants that have returned to Libya, and urged other U.S. companies to invest in all sectors of Libya’s economy.

American Opportunities

American companies need to “be more involved, to be more aggressive to visit Libya to see where they can make business,” he said, so they don’t lose opportunities to other countries such as Italy, which has been proactive in seeking business prospects.

Aujali cited health care, infrastructure, education and tourism as sectors in which the Libyan government is seeking foreign investment. He said tourism remains one of the least- developed industries, citing Libya’s 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) of beaches and its cultural attractions, including Leptis Magna, one of the best-preserved Roman ruins in the Mediterranean,

Aujali said Libya is seeking American universities and hospitals interested in assisting with training and technology and setting up branches or partnerships, as many have done in the Persian Gulf and North Africa.

Unfrozen Assets

Libya is looking to the U.S. and NATO countries to help rebuild after a bloody conflict that cost the nation billions of dollars in lost trade and revenue, according to the International Monetary Fund. The revolution killed 30,000 people and wounded 50,000 others, according to the Libyan government.

“You supported this revolution at a critical time,” he said. Still, “the new road is not built,” so the U.S. needs to stay involved to ensure the democratic transition is completed.

The Obama administration has done everything possible to assist Libya’s government, including making available $31 billion in Libyan government assets under U.S. jurisdiction that was frozen as a penalty on Qaddafi’s government, Aujali said.

The only Libyan assets that remain frozen by the U.S. are about $3 billion belonging to the Libyan Investment Authority, the government-managed sovereign wealth fund and holding company based in Tripoli, he said. The authority needs to be reorganized under a dependable board of directors before “we feel safe” asking for the funds to be released, he said.

Election Plans

Libya has scheduled elections for July 7. Aujali said 145 political parties have formed, with 3,000 candidates vying for 200 legislative posts. About 80 percent of eligible voters have registered, underscoring excitement about the democratic transition, he said.

Still, the situation remains volatile, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, chairman of the National Transitional Council, said in an interview with state-run Qatar News Agency June 17. Libya risks descending into civil war if the current unstable security situation persists, he was quoted as saying.

Aujali said his country has studied other nations’ models for reconciliation and justice following long dictatorships during which many were persecuted. Libya is “not starting from zero. There are many with experience in the history and we learn from them.”

‘No Revenge’

While some members of the old regime are under arrest, “there is no revenge at the time being against the Qaddafi regime,” he said. “Reconciliation is important. But in the first place, justice has to be made.”

Aujali said he expects a speedy resolution of the “misunderstandings” in the case of a team from the International Criminal Court in the Hague that was detained June 7 by Libyan authorities. Libya accused Australian defense lawyer Melinda Taylor of trying to smuggle documents to Qaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam Qaddafi in a Libyan prison. The Libyan government accuses Qaddafi’s son of directing the killing of thousands during his father’s regime and during the rebellion.

“The Libyan people, they have the right before anybody else to try Saif al-Islam in Libya,” Aujali said of the effort to try him in the international court in the Netherlands.

Source: Business Week

Mideast tourism has bright future

UNWTO projects 7% annual growth over 20 years

Despite events of the Arab Spring, and potential uncertainty in the wake of austerity measures in key source European markets, there is a bright future ahead for tourism in the Middle East and North Africa, according to a consensus of delegates at the first United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and Arabian Travel Market industry forum.

The summit, which took place at Arabian Travel Market on Monday, is now set to become an annual fixture that brings together both government and private sector officials to seek common goals and mutual benefits from the promotion of travel in to the region.

Speaking at the forum, UNWTO Secretary-General, Taleb Rifai, called the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region a “tourism success story in the first decade of the 21st century”, with the majority of markets already showing a strong rebound following the challenges of the last 12 months.

Rifai also shared some insight into the regional situation and gave a positive prognosis for the future. “We are very impressed by the rate of recovery of some of the most affected countries in the region. Countries that were directly affected, like Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen, saw a downturn of 80 to 85 per cent as political events unfolded, but minimised their losses considerably in 2011, closing the year down by 25 to 30 per cent.”

“The potential for growth is still excellent as we are starting from a low nominal base in the region. Even with 79 to 80 million tourist arrivals, the region has less than 8 per cent of the world’s intake of tourists, which currently stands at almost one billion. The MENA region deserves much more,” he added.

While UNWTO statistics recorded the loss of an estimated seven million tourists across the region last year, the organisation is projecting a seven per cent annual growth rate over the next 20 years with visitor totals hitting 195 million by 2030, up from 79 million in 2010.

Setting an optimistic tone, Egypt’s Minister of Tourism, HE Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour said first quarter visitor figures indicated the country was on the right track to return to the level of 2010 numbers by the end of the year, following a downturn of 33 per cent in 2011.

Tarak Labib, Regional Director of Sales Egypt, Hilton Worldwide, said, “The local market was a saviour for our resorts, and we were already seeing business come back by the end of March/early April,” he said.

Leanne Harwood, Vice President of Commercial for India, Middle East and Africa, InterContinental Hotel Group, took a more cautious stance, and noted that until “Egypt stops being on the front page, it’s difficult to see some stability but we’ve seen losses drop to 30 per cent from 80 per cent, so [the market is] definitely rebounding.”

Jordan Tourist Board director, Dr Abdelrazzak Arabiyat proposed joint marketing and packages. “In order to capitalise on long haul markets, we believe we have to combine packages with neighbours to offer Dubai and Jordan, Egypt and Jordan, Oman and Jordan,” he said.

His view was echoed by the minister of tourism for Oman, Her Excellency Maitha Al Mahrouqi who said, “Oman has its own elements, but we can work with others to package together, as well as increasing visa co-operation.”

Looking ahead, Rifai identified certain destinations as ‘ones to watch’. “There are a number of attractive untouched destinations that need a lot of investment, such as Libya and Algeria. These are sleeping giants” he said.

According to Reed Travel Exhibitions’ Portfolio Director, Mark Walsh, the summit was set to become an essential forum for regional issues facing the travel and tourism sector.

“While every destination has its priorities and strategies, there is a common goal to promote the region and we are delighted at the level of participation in this inaugural event which demonstrates a will to work together at all levels,” he concluded.

Source: Emirates247

London reaffirms commitment to Libya

A visit to Tripoli will give the British government the   opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to an emerging Libyan government, a British official said. British Minister for the Middle East Alistair Burt arrived in Tripoli Tuesday. He said he would formalize a British Embassy office in the former rebel capital Benghazi and open a visa application center in Tripoli during his two-day visit to Libya.

"I am delighted to return to Libya at a key stage in its  transition as the Libyan people prepare for their first  democratic elections in over 40 years," he said in a statement. "I look forward to reaffirming the U.K.'s commitment to Libya."

The British military was part of the NATO-led intervention in Libya last year meant to protect civilians from attacks by forces loyal to leader Moammar Gadhafi. Since Gadhafi's death in October, the new interim government has set the stage for national elections but dealt with internal clashes and autonomy bids.

British lawmakers are investigating their country's alleged involvement in so-called extraordinary renditions of Libyan nationals.

Burt's visit coincides with an international oil and natural gas investment conference in Tripoli.

Source: UPI 

Solar power from Sahara a step closer

The German-led Desertec initiative believes it can deliver power to Europe as early as 2015


A $400bn (£240bn) plan to provide Europe with solar power from the Sahara moved a step closer to reality today with the formation of a consortium of 12 companies to carry out the work.
The Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII) aims to provide 15% of Europe's electricity by 2050 or earlier via power lines stretching across the desert and Mediterranean sea.

The German-led consortium was brought together by Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, and consists of some of country's biggest engineering and power companies, including Siemens, E.ON, ABB and Deutsche Bank.

It now believes the DII can deliver solar power to Europe as early as 2015.
"We have now passed a real milestone as the company has been founded and there is definitely a profitable business there," said Professor Peter Höppe, Munich Re's head of climate change.
"We see this as a big step towards solving the two main problems facing the world in the coming years - climate change and energy security," said Höppe.

The solar technology involved is known as concentrated solar power (CSP) which uses mirrors to concentrate the sun's rays on a fluid container. The super-heated liquid then drives turbines to generate electricity. The advantage over solar photovoltaic panels, which convert sunlight directly to electricity, is that if sufficient hot fluid is stored in containers, the generators can run all night.

The technology is not new - there have been CSP plants running in the deserts of California and Nevada for two decades. But it is the scale of the Desertec initiative which is a first, along with plans to connect North Africa to Europe with new high voltage direct current cables which transport electricity over great distances with little loss.

Leading European energy industry expert Paul van Son has been appointed chief executive of DII and will recruit staff to build up a framework to make the building of both power plants and the grid infrastructure.

"We recognise and strongly support the Desertec vision as a pivotal part of the transition to a sustainable energy supply in the Middle East, North Africa and Europe," he said.
"Now the time has come to turn this vision into reality. That implies intensive cooperation with many parties and cultures to create a sound basis for feasible investments into renewable energy technologies and interconnected grids."

Desertec has gained broad support across Europe, with the newly elected German coalition government of Angela Merkel hoping the project could offset its dependence on Russian gas supplies.

North African governments are said to be keen, too, to further exploit their natural resources. Algeria and Libya are already big oil and gas suppliers to Europe.

Höppe said Munich Re had been concerned about the potential impact of climate change on the insurance business since the early 1970s. Extreme weather events related to climate change are already a reality and have the potential to be uninsurable against within a few decades, pointing to a possible crisis for the industry, he said.
"To keep our business model alive in 30 or 40 years we have to ensure things are still insurable," he said.

Munich Re also plans to invest in the new initiative and Höppe said banks were confident that they could raise sufficient funding to make the project work.

There are already some small CSP plants in Spain and North Africa, with the power used locally. But Desertec plans to see big power stations of one gigawatt operating in five years' time and exporting some current across the Mediterranean. The consortium stresses, though, that power generated by solar fields in North Africa would be used by North Africans as well as Europeans. North Africa has a small population relative to the size of its deserts. For similar reasons Australia is putting together its own Desertec initiative.

Dan Lewis, head of a new thinktank, the Economic Policy Centre, and author of a forthcoming energy policy paper, said: "This is just the sort of long-term, big-difference, energy security gain project that our UK short-term targets and policy framework can't deliver.

"Instead, we're spending ridiculous sums on no-hoper, marginal stuff like fusion energy and a massive smart meter rollout, that at best will only shave a fraction off peak demand."

Source: guarden.co.uk