Security Fears Cloud Libyan Oil Growth

By BENOÎT FAUCON, WSJ

Heightened security fears after the killing of the U.S. envoy to Libya will further slow the return of foreign oil workers to the country, potentially threatening Libya's plans to boost oil output and grow its economy, according to oil company executives and consultants.

"It's a serious blow to Libya in terms of security," said Tarek Alwan, head of consultancy SOC Libya, which advises international companies investing in the North African nation. "It will delay the return of international oil companies and expatriates."

Oil companies were beefing up their security precautions on Wednesday in the aftermath of the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats by suspected religious extremists in the eastern city of Benghazi. One European oil company told visiting foreign staff to stay at their Tripoli hotels as a precautionary measure, according to a Libyan oil professional.

Following the ousting of Moammar Gadhafi last year, Libya has surprised analysts by bringing its oil production close to pre-revolution levels much faster than analysts had expected.

Foreign oil companies with production interests in Libya—such as Germany's Wintershall AG, Eni SpA ENI.MI -0.33% of Italy and Total SA FP.FR -0.35% of France—have sent back expatriate workers.

But even before the U.S. envoy's killing Tuesday, attacks on Western interests in June and political protests this summer had already caused some oil-service companies and those with exploration concessions to revise their staffing plans for Libya.

That threatened the country's plans to boost output to 2.2 million barrels a day over the next three years, up 40% from present levels. Such an increase would be enough to overtake Angola to become the eighth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Back in July, Libyan production dropped by 200,000 barrels a day for a short period when protests over parliamentary elections disrupted operations at the country's largest terminal in el-Sider, in eastern Libya.

When it resumed its operations in May, BP BP.LN -0.45% PLC, which has by far the largest exploration plans in Libya, involving investment of $900 million, said the move would pave the way for a return of its expatriates. But three months on, a spokesman for the British company said it had yet to send its foreign staff back because the situation isn't considered safe enough.

Mr. Alwan said he knew of one international consultancy active in the oil sector had that pulled out completely from Benghazi, the capital of Libya's eastern region where the majority of the country's oil is produced, after a British diplomatic convoy was attacked in June.

When foreign staff return, Libyan oil managers say they are sometimes guarded by armored convoys when traveling to and from the airport. Restaurants where they plan to dine are checked first by security guards.

Once Libya accelerates plans to boost production, the reluctance of foreign oil workers to return could leave the country short of specialists in gas-injection equipment—needed to boost production from existing fields—and geologists and seismic workers needed for exploration of new fields, according to a Libyan oil manager at a large European oil operation.

Still, some Libyan officials are hopeful that the formation of a new government—expected to take place soon following elections in July—will lead to serious measures to improve security.

The tragedy "will be an incentive to be more dedicated about security," said Ahmed Shawki, head of marketing at the state-owned National Oil Co. "Other [oil-producing] countries had a worse situation," he added. "Look at Iraq."

Party's Over For Libya's Epsa-4 Pioneers

One by one, the international oil companies (IOCs) that rushed into Libya to participate in the country's first two hotly contested Epsa-4 bid rounds in 2005 are preparing to pull out as their five-year exploration licenses approach expiry.

But despite the tricky year operators have endured in Libya, it is geology, rather than political interference by Tripoli, that is the key factor behind their departure (PIW Jun.8,p4). Discoveries on acreage awarded in those rounds have been rare, with only Canadian independent Verenex -- now set to be acquired by the state Libyan Investment Authority -- bucking the general trend of dry holes and small, subcommercial finds. "If over the next two to three years we don't see any serious exploration success, quite a few companies will be moving out of Libya," Repsol YPF's Libya country chief Felix Castaneda told a recent conference.

Australia independent Woodside is leading the way, announcing plans last month to exit Libya by early 2010. The UK's BG has also served notice that it intends to relinquish two of three exploration blocks it was awarded in 2005, and is soon expected to part with a third that it shares with Norway's Statoil. Woodside has had no drilling success on any of its four offshore Epsa-4 blocks, and is expected to let these licenses lapse next year, in addition to selling its interests in older Epsa-3 acreage. The writing is on the wall for a host of other companies -- Brazil's Petrobras and Australian partner Oil Search last month plugged and abandoned their single commitment well on offshore Block 18. Other winners from the first two Epsa-4 rounds are also understood to be on the way out, notably Chevron from Murzuq Area 177 and state China National Petroleum Corp. from offshore Block 17-4, while the jury is still out on the commerciality of the gas find made a year ago by the US' Hess on offshore Block 54.

Operators with older contracts and a few discoveries to their name face a rather different challenge, namely how to develop these finds under tougher Epsa-4 terms. When Libya's state National Oil Corp. (NOC) launched contract renegotiations with producers in 2007, it maintained that companies working under older and generally more generous terms would have to agree to new terms for the production phase conforming to the Epsa-4 model. For some, that crunch time is now fast approaching, and NOC is firmly in the driver's seat (PIW Nov.9,p5). Having spent millions on exploration, walking away is not an option, and many operators are keen to find a way to negotiate with NOC. But for those already facing technical challenges -- as Repsol and Austria's OMV are with their offshore NC-202 discoveries -- tougher Epsa-4 terms may jeopardize their development prospects.

New opportunities for IOCs in Libya remain limited, with one possible exception. Having taken note of the majors queuing up to develop Iraq's fields under service contracts, Shokri Ghanem -- albeit during his brief hiatus from his job as head of NOC -- recently said he would love to see the same happen in Libya (PIW Oct.26,p7). NOC has always maintained that Libya's bigger and mature producing fields are off-limits to foreign investors and will stay in the hands of NOC subsidiaries such as Agoco and Sirte Oil, quashing IOC hopes of landing re-development, enhanced oil recovery or production-sharing contracts for giant fields such as Sarir. New bid rounds are also on hold, at least until oil prices head back closer to $100 per barrel.

Source: Energy Intelligence Group