By BENOÎT FAUCON, WSJ
Heightened security fears after the killing of the U.S. envoy to Libya will further slow the return of foreign oil workers to the country, potentially threatening Libya's plans to boost oil output and grow its economy, according to oil company executives and consultants.
"It's a serious blow to Libya in terms of security," said Tarek Alwan, head of consultancy SOC Libya, which advises international companies investing in the North African nation. "It will delay the return of international oil companies and expatriates."
Oil companies were beefing up their security precautions on Wednesday in the aftermath of the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats by suspected religious extremists in the eastern city of Benghazi. One European oil company told visiting foreign staff to stay at their Tripoli hotels as a precautionary measure, according to a Libyan oil professional.
Following the ousting of Moammar Gadhafi last year, Libya has surprised analysts by bringing its oil production close to pre-revolution levels much faster than analysts had expected.
Foreign oil companies with production interests in Libya—such as Germany's Wintershall AG, Eni SpA ENI.MI -0.33% of Italy and Total SA FP.FR -0.35% of France—have sent back expatriate workers.
But even before the U.S. envoy's killing Tuesday, attacks on Western interests in June and political protests this summer had already caused some oil-service companies and those with exploration concessions to revise their staffing plans for Libya.
That threatened the country's plans to boost output to 2.2 million barrels a day over the next three years, up 40% from present levels. Such an increase would be enough to overtake Angola to become the eighth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Back in July, Libyan production dropped by 200,000 barrels a day for a short period when protests over parliamentary elections disrupted operations at the country's largest terminal in el-Sider, in eastern Libya.
When it resumed its operations in May, BP BP.LN -0.45% PLC, which has by far the largest exploration plans in Libya, involving investment of $900 million, said the move would pave the way for a return of its expatriates. But three months on, a spokesman for the British company said it had yet to send its foreign staff back because the situation isn't considered safe enough.
Mr. Alwan said he knew of one international consultancy active in the oil sector had that pulled out completely from Benghazi, the capital of Libya's eastern region where the majority of the country's oil is produced, after a British diplomatic convoy was attacked in June.
When foreign staff return, Libyan oil managers say they are sometimes guarded by armored convoys when traveling to and from the airport. Restaurants where they plan to dine are checked first by security guards.
Once Libya accelerates plans to boost production, the reluctance of foreign oil workers to return could leave the country short of specialists in gas-injection equipment—needed to boost production from existing fields—and geologists and seismic workers needed for exploration of new fields, according to a Libyan oil manager at a large European oil operation.
Still, some Libyan officials are hopeful that the formation of a new government—expected to take place soon following elections in July—will lead to serious measures to improve security.
The tragedy "will be an incentive to be more dedicated about security," said Ahmed Shawki, head of marketing at the state-owned National Oil Co. "Other [oil-producing] countries had a worse situation," he added. "Look at Iraq."
