One by one, the international oil companies (IOCs) that rushed into Libya to participate in the country's first two hotly contested Epsa-4 bid rounds in 2005 are preparing to pull out as their five-year exploration licenses approach expiry.
But despite the tricky year operators have endured in Libya, it is geology, rather than political interference by Tripoli, that is the key factor behind their departure (PIW Jun.8,p4). Discoveries on acreage awarded in those rounds have been rare, with only Canadian independent Verenex -- now set to be acquired by the state Libyan Investment Authority -- bucking the general trend of dry holes and small, subcommercial finds. "If over the next two to three years we don't see any serious exploration success, quite a few companies will be moving out of Libya," Repsol YPF's Libya country chief Felix Castaneda told a recent conference.
Australia independent Woodside is leading the way, announcing plans last month to exit Libya by early 2010. The UK's BG has also served notice that it intends to relinquish two of three exploration blocks it was awarded in 2005, and is soon expected to part with a third that it shares with Norway's Statoil. Woodside has had no drilling success on any of its four offshore Epsa-4 blocks, and is expected to let these licenses lapse next year, in addition to selling its interests in older Epsa-3 acreage. The writing is on the wall for a host of other companies -- Brazil's Petrobras and Australian partner Oil Search last month plugged and abandoned their single commitment well on offshore Block 18. Other winners from the first two Epsa-4 rounds are also understood to be on the way out, notably Chevron from Murzuq Area 177 and state China National Petroleum Corp. from offshore Block 17-4, while the jury is still out on the commerciality of the gas find made a year ago by the US' Hess on offshore Block 54.
Operators with older contracts and a few discoveries to their name face a rather different challenge, namely how to develop these finds under tougher Epsa-4 terms. When Libya's state National Oil Corp. (NOC) launched contract renegotiations with producers in 2007, it maintained that companies working under older and generally more generous terms would have to agree to new terms for the production phase conforming to the Epsa-4 model. For some, that crunch time is now fast approaching, and NOC is firmly in the driver's seat (PIW Nov.9,p5). Having spent millions on exploration, walking away is not an option, and many operators are keen to find a way to negotiate with NOC. But for those already facing technical challenges -- as Repsol and Austria's OMV are with their offshore NC-202 discoveries -- tougher Epsa-4 terms may jeopardize their development prospects.
New opportunities for IOCs in Libya remain limited, with one possible exception. Having taken note of the majors queuing up to develop Iraq's fields under service contracts, Shokri Ghanem -- albeit during his brief hiatus from his job as head of NOC -- recently said he would love to see the same happen in Libya (PIW Oct.26,p7). NOC has always maintained that Libya's bigger and mature producing fields are off-limits to foreign investors and will stay in the hands of NOC subsidiaries such as Agoco and Sirte Oil, quashing IOC hopes of landing re-development, enhanced oil recovery or production-sharing contracts for giant fields such as Sarir. New bid rounds are also on hold, at least until oil prices head back closer to $100 per barrel.
Source: Energy Intelligence Group
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