Libya, U.S. Probe Oil-Company Deals

By BENOÎT FAUCON, SUMMER SAID and LIAM MOLONEY

Authorities in the U.S. and Libya are investigating oil giants such as Italy's Eni SpAE -0.02% and France's Total SA FP.FR +0.79% over their past relations with the fallen Libyan regime, potentially casting a cloud on the companies' ambitions to expand their foothold in the country with the largest oil reserves in Africa.

Last year, a civil war that toppled Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi nearly shut down the country's crude production, stressing global oil markets. But as oil-company operations return to normal, the probes may complicate the oil companies' business in the country.

Enlarge Image

Reuters

A civil war nearly shut Libya's crude output last year. Pictured, rebels headed toward a refinery in August.

The Libyan general prosecutor's office is investigating "Libyan and foreign operators in Libya" for possible "financial irregularities," its deputy head, Abdelmajeed Saad, said in an interview.

In a March letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the prosecutor's office formally asked the head of audit at Libya's National Oil Co. to supply oil-company documents. The letter mentions oil transactions between NOC and international traders Vitol Group andGlencore International GLEN.LN +5.75% PLC as examples of documents it is seeking. Though the Libyan probe focuses mostly on the Gadhafi era, the letter indicates that the request involving the traders includes the period of the country's civil war through the present.

The companies investigated also include Eni, the biggest foreign oil player in Libya, and Total, Mr. Saad said.

Neither the letter nor the deputy prosecutor mentioned any specific allegations involving the companies they named.

NOC's marketing manager, Ahmed Shawki, confirmed that NOC and its dealings with foreign companies, in general, are "under investigation from the general attorney."

"NOC submitted all documents. [The prosecutor's office is] doing the right thing," said Mr. Shawki, who wasn't in charge of the company under the late Mr. Gadhafi. He said he did "everything according to the law," but declined to comment on the Gadhafi era.

NOC Chairman Nuri Berruien declined to comment.

News of the Libyan probe comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sent formal requests to Eni and Total related to the companies' Libyan businesses. U.S. oil giant Marathon Oil Corp. MRO -0.92% also said in its annual SEC filing in February that it was asked to hand over documents about its Libyan operations.

Eni said in its recent annual filing with the SEC that the U.S. investigation is in connection with "certain illicit payments to Libyan officials, possibly violating the U.S. Foreign Corruption Practice Act." The Italian company said the request covered the period from 2008, when Eni and others renegotiated contracts in Libya, to early 2011, when the civil war erupted.

Total also recently disclosed a request from the SEC in a filing, but didn't elaborate, except to say other companies also had been targeted.

The SEC, Eni, Glencore and Marathon all declined to comment. Total and Vitol were unavailable for comment.

The new Libyan regime, which faces its first elections in June, is under pressure to shed light on oil deals under Mr. Gadhafi, whose overthrow was driven partly by discontent over alleged corruption.

Mr. Saad, of the general prosecutor's office, said that if wrongdoing is established "the fine will be at least double the amount of money" lost to the Libyan government. Also, "it will affect securing any future contract," he said.

The pressure might complicate any future negotiation for international oil companies in Libya, one of the few countries still open to foreign investment at a time when others are tightening the noose on Westerners or are off limits due to sanctions. Eni, which normally gets about 14% of its total production form Libya, wants to double that amount and invest between $30 billion and $35 billion in the coming decade.

—Ángel González in Houston, Geraldine Amiel in Paris, Alexis Flynn and Iman Dawoud in London contributed to this article.

Write to Summer Said at summer.said@dowjones.com and Liam Moloney atliam.moloney@dowjones.com and Benoît Faucon at Benoit.Faucon@wsj.com

A version of this article appeared April 9, 2012, on page B3 in some U.S. editions of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Libya, U.S. Probe Oil-Company Deals.

Malta eyes cheap Libyan oil, after Qatari talks

NTC undersecretary for oil and gas suggests joint meeting for Maltese technical team. 

Tonio Fenech at the recent Libya forum held in Malta.

Matthew Vella

Finance Minister Tonio Fenech has been in discussions with the Libyan undersecretary at the ministry of oil and gas, Umar Shakmak, over Malta's hopes of obtaining assured supplies of Libyan oil and gas products on favourable terms, the English-language Libyan Herald has reported.

Shakmak was quoted in the NTC website suggesting during a joint meeting that a Maltese technical team be appointed to discuss the matter with specialists from the Libya National Oil Corporation.

"The two men are reported to have discussed other aspects of joint cooperation between Libya and Malta and ways of strengthening them," the Libyan Herald reported.

In February, Libya said it would review a request by the Jordanians to assure their oil and petroleum product needs at preferential prices.

Fenech will lead a Malta Enterprise delegation to Libya between April 16 and 19.  It will, however, concentrate on ports and maritime services.

At the end of February, Fench told a business forum on Libya that Malta identified itself strongly with Libya and wanted to play a strong role in its future.

MaltaToday revealed that Tonio Fenech also held meetings in Doha with Qatar's minister for energy and industry Mohamed bin Saleh al-Sada.

The meeting - held in the presence of Frank Galea, Malta's newly-appointed ambassador to the Gulf States - was held at the Qatar Petroleum headquarters and was also attended by senior officials of QP and Qatar Petroleum International.

Fenech said that "government acknowledged that the important thing was to find an alternative solution to weathering this temporary spike in oil prices."

He said that government's ultimate priority was to safeguard employment, industry and businesses.

Source: Malta Today 

The Full Story behind Ban of Libyan Airlines from Operating in EU

Photo: Afriqiyah Airways plane is standstill at an airport. By Dr. Amin B. Marghani On 3 April, the European Commission adopted the 19th update a ruling banning Libyan carriers from flying into EU countries, saying that “following constructive consultations, Libyan authorities decided to adopt strong measures applicable to all air carriers licensed in Libya, which exclude them from flying into the EU until at least November 2012.” However, it is the Libyan Minister of Transportation to blame for encouraging such ruling by the EC Aviation Safety Committee (ECASC) by acknowledging its claims, right or wrong, and volunteered to prevent Libyan air carriers from operating into Europe’s airspace. In its ruling the ECASC used the Libyan minister’s ‘acknowledgement’ to do two things. First, even though there were no grounds to ban Libyan airlines, the uncalled for and clear acknowledgement by the Libyan minister of transportation save ECASC from making any efforts to explain its ban. Secondly, Libyan airlines would have been banned at any time provided that they violated their own Minister’s halt of flights. This way of dealing with such matter has no precedence. A Minister is supposed to protect the country’s interests. The Libyan airlines deserve protection since there were no safety issues related to the airlines, and almost all aircraft maintenance is carried out on Libyan aircraft with Lufthansa Technique, Air France or other European specialised firms. After all airlines are vital because they represent strategic organisations and they are important for the country’s economy and society. The story goes back to September 2011when the Libyan Civil Aviation Authority (LCAA), looked to resume overseeing flight safety after the fall of Gaddafi, the Authority had to start an uphill struggle to come to grips with its responsibilities to oversee and enforce compliance to airworthiness regulations in a situation laden with security and administrative concerns. In the process, two questions were of significance and needed answers: first what to do about outstanding findings which remained unresolved since ICAO audit carried out in 2007, the other is to see that Libyan air carriers resume operations and restore their pre-war network. In this context, LCAA started dealing with the European Commission. The LCAA thought that a few weeks were required before airlines could reposition themselves to resume operations and wrote to the EC, suggesting that in the weeks as such required by the airlines, could be sufficient to mend many of the outstanding issues. LCAA was talking to CAAI, a British CAA consultancy, which would have been on the list of firms who can help effectively. In response, the Libyan CAA was warned by the EC that unless they met a stringent deadline to provide promised information, the matter would be referred to EC Aviation Safety Committee which would ban Libyan Operators. A technical team was quickly formed to make several presentations to Brussels showing airlines had no problems. At the last meeting the Libyan Minister of Transportation decided to head the team and lead the negotiations only to decide banning his own carriers from flying to Europe. Meanwhile, Libyan air carriers are leasing aircraft to resume operations and have to abstain from operating to Europe using Libyan registered aircraft unless the airworthiness is transferred to another country, the aircraft are reregistered in another country or until the EC Air Safety Committee is satisfied that The Libyan Civil Aviation Authority can carry out airworthiness oversight efficiently. Though the ECASC does not ban Libyan air carriers, and was made to show determination from ECASC that air safety is intolerant of less than perfection, this is a case that deserves investigation whether the ruling was genuinely necessary. The problem lies with the Libyan Civil Aviation Authorities (LCAA) as acknowledged by the Libyan Minister of Transport and the ECASC. LCAA has been working to adopt a fast track program to rectify issues but remains constrained by the consequences of war in Libya and continued lack of funding. The LCAA was unable to make good and quickly remedy certain ICAO findings (reported in 2007) after the war and, simply remained not fully ready to implement full airworthiness oversight and to EC satisfaction. Normally, since the shortfall in legislation and regulations and their enforcement is true, the Libyan Government should have sought assistance by negotiating an agreement with a neighbouring country, as permitted under the Chicago Convention, to include Libya in their airworthiness oversight jurisdiction until Libyan Civil Aviation Authority gets ready. But the Minister of Transportation chose to sacrifice the national airlines and request the exclusion of Libyan air carriers from Europe. True the airlines were under scrutiny but not condemned and thus not included in the EU banned airlines list. The Draconian measure explained by the ECASC as a consequence of the request made by the Libyan Minister, distancing itself somewhat from the decision. European Airlines will continue to operate into Libyan Airspace controlled by the same Libyan Airworthiness Authority. That is incredible. If the Libyan authorities asked to ban the Libyan National Airlines, because of the inadequacy of the Libyan Civil Aviation Authority ‘Airworthiness ‘ deficiencies, then European Airlines should abstain from flying to Libya, too? If they don’t, Libyan airlines should be allowed back into European airspace. The Libyan Transport Minister’s abstention order should be revoked, and the Grip of the Transport Minister on the LCAA and airlines should be loosened and the LAW applied. He is supposed to be a politician and leave technical people to do their job. Libya should seek to include its airworthiness enforcement in another country’s civil aviation authority until LCAA becomes fit again. The writer is an air transport consultant. He contributed this article to The Tripoli Post.

Al-Qaddafi-Era Rivalries Haunt Libya

                   

Turf battles emerge between tribes, civil war fighters as officials look on helplessly More than seven months after Muamar Al-Qaddafi was toppled from power, his legacy of divide, rule and suppress has bequeathed Libya with simmering grievances now boiling over into fierce turf wars, analysts say. The latest instance came in ferocious fighting between rival towns in western Libya, which left more than a score of people dead this week as militias battled each other with tanks and artillery. The week before, internecine fighting in the remote desert oasis of Sabha between tribes killed about 150 people and left hundreds displaced. In both cases, the governing National Transitional Council (NTC) looked on helplessly. “It’s certainly worrying,” Charles Gurdon, managing director of the British political risk consultancy Menas Associates, told The Media Line. “At the moment, the NTC really doesn’t have control over the whole country and there isn’t an army strong enough to maintain control. The most powerful forces in country at the moment are the major militias.” The failure of the NTC to maintain order threatens to undermine the country’s transition to democratic rule and revive the economy. Libyan government spokesman Nasser Al-Manaa told journalists in Tripoli on Wednesday that the instability could delay June elections for a constituent assembly. “Freedom does not have to mean chaos and rights should not be claimed by picking up arms,” Manaa said, urging the sides to act with restraint. Libyan oil production is up to 75% of pre-war levels and last month the local stock exchange opened for business. But an international trade fair opening this month in Tripoli will likely draw half the participants it did two years ago as foreigners fear travelling to the country. Libyan airlines were barred Wednesday from the European Union after the two sides agreed the country’s jets didn’t meet safety standards. Moreover, the post-liberation chaos in Libya is almost certainly influencing world leaders hesitant to intervene in Syria, which remains gripped by fighting between the government and opposition. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper warned this week that by comparison with Libya – where NATO forces intervened to help what he termed an organized and united opposition against a universally hated leader – Syria could be headed toward a period of worse violence. Libya enjoyed more than four decades of political quiet under Al-Qaddafi, but he accomplished that by ruling with an iron hand that suppressed the traditional tribal rivalries that are now breaking out in the new, freer atmosphere. His “Africa-first” policy lured sub-Saharan Africans to the country, where they were often favored with jobs and other privileges that provoked jealously among indigenous Libyans. Last week’s violence in the desert oasis town of Sabha, about 750 kilometers (450 miles) south of Tripoli, was the result of clashes between Tibu, who arrived in Libya at Al-Qaddafi’s urging years ago from neighboring Chad, with ethnic Arabs who see them as outsiders. Meanwhile, the rivalries of the country’s five-month-long civil war are still being played out in places like western Libya, where militias in the town of Zuwara, whose largely ethnic-Berber population fought Al-Qaddafi while their mostly Arab neighbors from towns like Regdalin and Al-Jumail remained loyal to the deposed leader. Other turf wars are being fought over smuggling routes, particularly in western Libya where militias, criminal gangs and other interested parties are vying to take over in the chaos. Al-Qaddafi’s style of personal rule prevented the creation of government institutions, which means the NTC has inherited little in the way of a bureaucracy or army to effectively rule Libya. The militias that rose up during the civil war are loath to put down their arms and many of them outgun the official forces because the NTC hasn’t offered sufficient incentives, said Tarek Alwan, managing director of London-based consulting firm SOC Libya. “If I have a gun and you would like to take it from me, you need to give me a reward in term of money, salaries, training programs, scholarships, jobs,” Alwan told The Media Line. Gurdon said a government program to pay civil war fighters a stipend has not only encouraged the militias to remain intact at state expense but has created a boondoggle. The number of actual fighters in the war was not very large, but with the economy in the doldrums and few jobs to be found, non-veterans have been staking claims. “If you’re being paid 500 dinars a month by the government because you were a revolutionary fighter, you become a revolutionary fighter. There is nothing else to do,” Gurdon of the Menas consultancy said. When real militia men are integrated into the national army, they tend to be recruited though their militia rather than as an individual, so they remain loyal to their commanders rather than the army, he said.  The key date for Libya is June 23 when elections for a constituent assembly are scheduled. Despite government warnings that the chaos may force cancellation both Gurdon and Alwan predicted the vote would go ahead as planned and, if it is conducted freely and fairly, would help establish the credibility of the government. Will elections convince the militias to lay down their arms?  “I don’t think before [the vote], but definitely afterwards,” Alwan said. “Some military groups have already given up arms, even though others are cautious, not fully convince that current government will lead the country to democracy.” He expressed confidence that the turf wars wracking the country would die down and that they do not constitute a fundamental threat to stability and order in the long run. Written by David Rosenberg Published Thursday, April 05, 2012 on The Media Line

Full UK visa service resumes in Libya

I am pleased to announce that the UK has now re-opened its a full visa service in Libya, after the service closed in February 2011.

Libyans are now able to apply for their UK visa at the Visa Application Centre in Tripoli.

Minister for North Africa Alistair Burt said:

“I am delighted that Libyans wishing to travel to the UK can now apply for their visa in Tripoli.

“This move will further enhance the growing relationship between our two countries and will promote stronger political, economic and cultural ties. There has been sustained progress in all these areas over the past six months and I am confident this will continue. Better transportation is an important driver of this, and I look forward to the resumption of direct flights between the UK and Libyan as soon as possible.”

From today, Libyans will be able to apply for the full range of visas – including for business, education, family visits or tourism. Libyans who wish to transit at a UK airport need to apply for a Direct Airside Transit Visa (DATV), unless they are travelling to or from the US, Canada, Australia or New Zealand.

Source: Foreign and Commonwealth Office

New Libya contracts 'in Statoil sights'

Statoil is positioning itself for possible upcoming contract awards in Libya after reopening its local office in the war-torn North African country last month, according to a report.

The Norwegian state oil company is now looking to bring back online production to pre-war levels in Libya, where it is a partner in the onshore Mabruk field and in exploration in the Murzuq basin, spokesman Baard Glad Pedersen told NTB.

While Statoil is looking to exit nearby Iraq, the company appears to still be committed to Libya and says on its website that “we are considering new business opportunities that may arise”.

 “We believe it will take time for Libya to open for new licence awards. Our first priority is to restore production to its original level,” Pedersen said.

“We expect a gradual increase in our production in Libya in the coming months,” he added.

Before the war that deposed late leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya was producing a total of 1.6 million barrels per day of oil, mostly for export.

Statoil’s operations in the country accounted for around 1.3% of its global production before it pulled out its staff in February last year.

Pedersen said the extent of damage to the company’s facilities in Libya was “less than we feared beforehand”.

The newly reopened Statoil office in the capital Tripoli also suffered minimal damage, with only a few bullet holes in the walls, country boss Jarle Boe earlier told Stavanger Aftenblad.

Norwegian aircraft participated with Nato forces in bombing raids to support rebels seeking to overthrow Gaddafi, who was eventually shot and killed, and this may be a factor in upcoming licence awards.

The London representative for Libya’s National Transitional Council, Guma El Gomati, said Norwegian companies would be well positioned in the contest to exploit the country’s petroleum resources.

”Basically, it will be the companies that come up with the best offers that will be awarded contracts, but if companies from two different countries present equally good offers, then their efforts in the war will be decisive,” he said.

However, Pedersen does not believe that Norwegian companies will be given preferential treatment based on the country’s contribution to the war.

“Our country office will be open for the new opportunities that are on offer. However, we act on the basis that we must compete for eventual new contracts and show that we can create value,” he said.

By Steve Marshall and news reports, 

 (UpStream) 

Setting up Business in Libya

Foreign companies wishing to enter & operate in the Libyan market  should set up a local entity, this can be achieved through various method. Some are mentioned below.

Under Libyan law (which remain the same and would probably continue to be in force for a while) it is not permissible to do business in the country without a registered presence.

Below are some of the options:

       Joint Venture (JV): 

The joint venture company is a joint stock company (JSC) with a minimum of 35% Libyan ownership. The minimum share capital of a JSC is one million Libyan Dinars (LYD), at least 30% of which must be paid in on incorporation into a joint account in a Libyan bank, with the remainder to be paid within five years. This vehicle is commonly used for foreign-Libyan joint ventures. Legal and financial advices are essential before heading this route. This option can offer a number of advantages bidding for jobs in country as foreign and Libya operators have a preference for awarding to high-quality local companies where possible

Branch Office:

The registration of a branch office of a foreign company does not require a Libyan partner (or sponsor). However, the foreign company must demonstrate that is has particular experience in its planned area of activity. In addition, the activities which may be performed through a branch are confined to those mentioned in a list published by the Ministry of the Economy & Trade (Not all activities allowed). On registration, the parent company is obliged to deposit a minimum of 150.000 LYD with a Libyan local bank. A branch office has the advantage that the foreign company is not dependent on a Libyan partner. Opening a branch office is a complex process that can take months or more.

Investment Enterprise:

Under Investment Law No. 9 of 2010, investors can establish investment enterprises for activities in all the main industry sectors, with the exception of oil and gas exploration and production. The investment project may be wholly owned by the foreign investor, provided that the amount of the funds invested exceeds five million LYD. The minimum investment is reduced to two million LYD if a Libyan partner holds at least 50% in the investment. An investment enterprise benefits from certain exemptions from taxes and customs duties for the first 5 years. Net profits and dividends are freely transferable and the investor may own real property in Libya. An investment enterprise is particularly suited to a foreign investor wishing to undertake a capital intensive project in the country.

·           Commercial Agency:

Commercial agency and distribution are mainly governed by the Commercial Code which has abrogated the Commercial Agency Law No. 6 of 2004. The Executive Regulations of the Commercial Agency Law No. 136 of 2004 provide an extensive list of goods and services for which a local commercial agent (Only Libyan nationals or privately owned companies) is required (notable exceptions are foodstuffs and construction materials). However, the importation for private use or for the purpose of a specific project does not require a local commercial agent or distributor.

It should be noted that further restrictions, such as limits on foreign shareholdings, are contained in specific regulations, such as those covering oilfield services, banking and insurance.

Structuring business activities in Libya requires finding and choosing a suitable business partner and careful legal planning and, in view of restrictions of foreign ownership, corporate government arrangements are often complex.

To enquire or wish to speak to us about it, please feel free to do so at Email: Info@soclibya.com, Tel: +44 2089878450 or M: +44 7774013043

International telcos eye Libya as elections near

International firms are keen to enter Libya's telecommunications sector, one of the major business opportunities created by last year's uprisings in the Arab world. But they will only find out how they can do so after the war-torn country's first free elections in June.

Image: Thinkstock

 The country of 6 million people remains in political turmoil; last week's inter-tribal fighting left nearly 150 dead. But Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar Telecom (Qtel) and Saudi Telecom have all expressed potential interest in Libya.Foreign investment in the sector is much needed after a fifth of Libya's transmitter stations were destroyed in last year's revolution ending Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year dictatorship.

Gaddafi isolated Libya's economy from much foreign competition, reserving licences and contracts for his own circle, which makes the market attractive to new entrants. There are only two mobile operators, Al Madar and Libyana, which are both state-owned.

Libya's huge energy reserves mean median incomes are much higher than for neighbouring countries. And acquisition opportunities in telecommunications have dwindled globally in recent years, making Libya more alluring.

"At least three or four" foreign operators have expressed interest in entering Libya, Communications Minister Anwar El-Feitori told Reuters, "but we'll leave it to the next government to decide on that."

Elections for a national assembly will be held in June to replace the interim government, which lacks a mandate to make major decisions about the economy. Feitori said Libya would open its telecommunications market to fresh competition "when we have the rules for the competition and when we have the right infrastructure for that as well".

He said about 20 percent of the sites operated by Al Madar and Libyana were damaged, with the most severe destruction in Zlitan, Misrata and Sirte, scenes of heavy fighting during the eight-month war. Each firm has about 1,000 base stations.

The damage, which was estimated by the Gaddafi government to total hundreds of millions of dollars, meant mobile networks in the east and west of the country were cut off from each other when the conflict ended.

"We worked on getting the services back to normal and now we're almost there. There is a big demand in telecom services," Feitori said. Internet users have doubled since the revolution, he added; Facebook played a major role in mobilising opposition to Gaddafi.

New entrants

In other African markets, fierce competition and multiple operators have left newer entrants struggling to compete.

"Libya isn't like that and so would be attractive to foreign operators, both in terms of buying into the existing players or from buying a third licence," said Peter Lange, an analyst at BuddeComm in Sydney.

"Libya is one of the wealthiest markets in Africa, similar to South Africa and Gabon in terms of GDP per capita, and there's a lot of money to be made in providing broadband and internet services."

Libya's mobile phone penetration, the ratio of phones to the population, rocketed from under 1 percent in 2001 to 172 percent in 2010, according to official data. But many analysts doubt the figures, believing they may have been invented by officials in the former regime, though the uneven quality of service means a significant number of Libyans do carry two mobiles.

Real mobile penetration is probably much lower, allowing room for growth, while Libya's broadband and internet penetration lag the regional average and are below levels for the country's poorer neighbours. In 2010, 14 percent of people in Libya were using the Internet, according to the International Telecommunications Union, compared with 49 percent in Morocco, 37 percent in Tunisia and 27 percent in Egypt.

"Data offers a lot of potential, with only Libyana having a 3G licence," said Matthew Reed, a senior analyst at Informa Telecoms and Media in Dubai. "Data and mobile broadband services are relatively expensive, so there hasn't been a strong take-up yet. There are still prospects for other value-added services, which is why foreign operators are interested."

Etisalat bid for a third Libya licence in 2009 but the former regime never completed the auction, leaving the sector firmly under the control of the Gaddafi family and its associates.

Reed said the preferred option for an operator such as Etisalat would probably be to buy into one of the existing service providers.

"Libya could sell stakes in both Madar and Libyana, which would increase competition and also allow for a skills and knowledge transfer," he said.

The general manager of Libya's stock exchange, Ahmed Karoud, told Reuters last month that pre-war plans to list shares in Al Madar and Libyana would go ahead next year. The listings might be an opportunity for foreign operators to buy into the firms.

One analyst said Libyana might be valued at around US$2 billion and Al Madar at about half that amount in the event of a sale, though he stressed that many uncertainties, such as the real level of mobile penetration, meant valuing the companies at this time was very difficult.

Politics

Any sale would depend on the next government's approval - and as the country grapples with political divisions and reconstruction tasks across the economy, it is not clear when telecommunications policy will be set and what it will look like. Some fear a wait of many months.

"Telecoms is way down on its priority list," said a Middle East telecommunications analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "The networks are operational, but there's no clear government strategy for telecoms or a means to implement one."

He said one example that Libya might follow was post-war Iraq, which fully liberalised its market and allowed many telecommunications firms to provide international services.

That policy could be introduced in at least some areas of the country, he said; "with some regions seemingly wanting a federal Libya, regional governments could give permission for foreign telecoms firms to start operations without getting central approval."

But the case of Egypt, which is also preparing to elect a new leader following the end of Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule, suggests major liberalisation could be delayed.

"Pre-revolution, Egypt was talking about privatising Telecom Egypt, but that's now totally on the back burner and Libya's political situation is a lot more fractious," said the analyst. "A third licence is definitely unrealistic until the government and political structures are sorted out."

Until then, foreign operators will continue to hope. Some analysts think that when the market does open, Etisalat may be treated well by the government because of the UAE's role in providing financial and logistical aid to anti-Gaddafi forces. Qatar also provided substantial aid.

Etisalat owns a 28 percent stake in Abu Dhabi-based Thuraya Satellite Telecommunications, which supplied satellite phones to the rebels. With local mobile networks shut down, those handsets were used by anti-government fighters to communicate with their commanders and call in NATO airstrikes.

"NATO played a huge role in removing Gaddafi

Source: Reuters